Interesting theory on SPY: possible ST short?

2020年11月26日

Bear case (just a theory): If we take a look at time and space on this daily chart, 25 bars (35 days) for the trough-peak-trough before the election. If we take the FDA talk on the vaccine for the same whatever reason, I believe there is a possible downside of ~9% until Dec 9th, a trough-peak-trough total of 29 bars (36 days).
- Yellow trend line act as support.
- Volume has been a downtrend.
- The two overheard white trendlines represent a strong resistance on the daily and weekly charts. (candles move easier towards less resistance direction)
- Technically only tested bottom support twice (red shadow or yellow trendline), possibly the third time?
- Small rsi divergence on weekly.


Bull case: Priced in. Spy looking to break overheard trendlines or move closely with it.
- Tested the overhead trendlines three times with the last retest completed, possibly going higher. (green arrow)
- Options pricing in more downward risks but not so much upside risk. (this is normal due to the nature of hedging) pasteboard.co/JC5xURm.jpg
- For educational purpose: tastytrade.com/tt/learn/volatility-skew
- Some of the macros: 10yr yield steady uptrend, low vix, gold downtrend, dollar going for new low since march.

Just a theory, will keep my longs on, may just short with an option contract or two to defend downside risk.