SPX Headed up for Q2 End to 5000 and Q3/Q4 Expecting -25%

Expecting macro bad news to cool off in Q2 but really pressure markets by end of year.

Crypto will not be immune to this. Expecting $BTC to retest $30k or $25k min. Ethereum to hit $2000 to $1500. Most Altcoins to be down -50% from ATHs at minimum or -80% in many cases.

评论:

Why do I think the above scenario will happen?
1. Heavy fear sold into lows of growth stocks + Crypto
2. Fed rate hikes are expected and market has priced in at least 5-7 hikes at 25bps and a few 50bps intra-meeting hikes
3. Bond market yields are still terrible for investors to even consider, esp. given that inflation is so rampant
4. Games of liquidity: Market selling so heavy into lows, almost always has equal or overshoot reaction in the opposite direction - to the point of irrationality. Liquidity in this case is higher and I'd figure a larger distribution takes place at the highs
5. Russia/Ukraine war issues are "calm" as any large issue like that can be - but again, market priced in a lot of that fear into lows imo. Unless Russia uses nukes or bombs Poland or Germany - this war will be dragged out and be business as usual
6. Un-anticipated event that could throw a wrench is spread of COVID (Shangha/Shenzen issues developing) but the world right now is so over covid - I don't think most Western nations will shut down economy or even care

All in all, the market has almost all bases covered by simply having such a massive sell-off. The caveat will be once the market surprises everyone by going up +15% from here, as stated in image - people will conveniently forget how badly deteriorated the conditions are on a global economy basis, resource issues w/ oil price highs, trade stalls, wheat, fertilizer, LNG constraints etc. This should be the brick wall of sellers in the market and can quite easily create a top.