As we see on this 4 hour chart, ETC fell with BTC as it hit a big resistance the other day at around 41.75 (14.6% retracement, which also corresponds to the second last all-time high). The previous RHS (in blue) had precicely reached it's average target (38%*, which brought it to $37), then it tried to continue going up but it didn't have what it takes to break through the 14.6% resistance. Now, and this is still very hypothetical, it appears to be making a massive reverse head-and-shoulders (in green), in which the previous one fits snuggly in the head like a nice little fractal. As you can see, when it fell after hitting the resistance it rejoined the previous bear channel and was immediately projected out. I haven't traced the new bull channel because it's not fully formed yet, but it seems to be pretty steep. There's a big volume on the hypothetical right shoulder, which is unusual as normally the volume is bigger on the left shoulder, but let's give it a chance. Expect huge resistance again as it tries to go through 41.75 (bottom red dotted line), then through the neckline, then through the all-time high resistance of 47. But if it does succeed in going through all of those, and it's a very big IF at this point, it's a very clear path upwards. Don't get too excited if it goes through the neckline though, because it could very well reverse at the 47. But if it does go through all of that, then a rise to between 64 (38%, on average) and 68+ (1 in 4 to reach 45% or more) becomes very conceivable.
Happy trading!
*These numbers are from Bulkowski's 2005 bible, the Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
Happy trading!
*These numbers are from Bulkowski's 2005 bible, the Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns.
评论:
The right shoulder seems to be well on it's way to being fully consolidated. Inside it, we find a smaller head and shoulder which just broke through the neckline an hour ago, at around 36.7. The average target for the small one would lead it to around $50, but once if it actually does reach this target, it will mean it will have broken out of the giant head and shoulders, for which the target would be $60. Let's see how this plays out but at the moment, it's very promising!
评论:
I've updated and recalibrated my analysis. You can view it here:
