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ETC/USD Main trend. Fractal cyclic structure

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Logarithm. Time frame 1 week. The main trend.

Duplicated on the exchange OKX, a little added to understand the logic and accuracy, as on the exchange poloniex, there is no liquidity. If something happens to have an idea on a more liquid exchange. As this cryptocurrency is interesting.

Major trend. Channel. Publication 01 2023

Linear Now in Moment.

Local now at the moment.

Locally. Let me remind you that from the main zone of the cryptocurrency set (horizontal channel) the average price is now exactly +84%. Compared to other assets, during the transition from the accumulation phase to the participation phase (Dow), the price did not increase very much compared to other cryptocurrencies. That is, a conditionally lagging asset.

A triangle is forming. In a localized rising set trend. From this zone, about 40-50% left to the rounded bottom resistance zone (final accumulation phase).

Then it will be business as usual, on stocks or liquid cryptocurrencies. Breakout of resistance, perhaps not immediately, but that's not the point. After breakout, consolidation, then re test and news negative/positive. Confirmation, and the beginning of strong, conditionally irrevocable impulsive movements into the zone of “news perspective of this blockchain”.

This is when ETH will be above or near $10,000. This will be its first consolidation — a partial reset before being pulled into the final reset (distribution) price zone. In this consolidation, not up to the maximum prices, the progenitor of expensive ether, that is, ETC, as before, will surprise everyone with an aggressive news background. With a high degree of probability, all speculative games, as in the last cycle during pumping, will be “slightly wavy”. Don't forget to sell and don't be greedy...

For those who are not traders at all. So which of the hamsters has iron balls, throw in a couple of hundred dollars and forget it, conditional retention without trading for 9, 13 and 19 months. Sold in 3 parts (optional). But, if you don't sell, you will get scared between these market pumping “time zones” and sell everything during the “fear”. If there is profit in advance, then it “warms the soul” and the feeling of lost profits will not play a cruel joke.

Money management. Leave a third of the invested money in dollars, for additional purchases, in case there is a spill in the market (only 1 significant, sharp, unexpected). Ignore everything else, there will be enough coins to earn money. If the dollars are not spent and the price flies away, do not buy crypto candy wrappers, but buy a gift for your loved ones.

I am sure that many hamsters, when a trend allows absolutely everyone to make money, will imagine that they are real traders and decide to increase the number of coins. I am 99.9% sure that on futures (your psychology is known in advance) if you take inadequate risks, you will lose all coins up to half the maximum price.

⚠️Adequately evaluate your skills and behavior. Therefore, for some people who are relatively poor but want to become rich, very quickly, it is better not to trade or even be interested in the market until the market is in the distribution cycle, that is, the highs (late 2024 and 2025). Otherwise, each local peak (as always) in a growing trend will be perceived as the end, and when the end comes, on the contrary, as not yet a maximum.

注释

Any normal, fast, trend corrections from the position of adequate risk management will “kill” your deposit if you allocate a large amount from the depository to a transaction with huge leverage. The more money a person receives “accidentally”, the more inclined he is to increase the risk even more in order to repeat the “success”! Don't take this slippery slope. Resetting to zero is a matter of time, not the event itself.

Do not play in a casino according to the casino rules. It's impossible to win at a casino. If you win, it will only be to intrigue you, but in the future, due to greed and recklessness, you will lose everything completely.

交易开始

The local triangle was broken down to the level of 26.7. Thus forming the logic of the downward local channel. One month of sideways consolidation around this price value of 26.7. This zone is 48.84% of the average set price of this cycle.

I do not recommend using futures and large margin leverage due to the rather low liquidity of the instrument and the huge probability of the price slipping by a large percentage in any direction and repeatedly (as always, essentially in reversal zones). That is, you will be “shaved” by crypto exchanges out of the blue, even if you locally guess the direction of price movement.

🔴If the exit from this monthly rectangle is downward, then we will see another local decline to zone 22-18.

🟢If the rectangle is not broken down (the entire market), and the resistance of the local downward channel is broken, then the nearest strong resistance will be zone 44. Medium-term maximums are 59.

If you are an investor or a positional trader, then any purchase in these zones is acceptable from the perspective of the cycle, and future very significant potential highs. There is no difference buying for 27 or 20 dollars (average 23.5), if, for example, conditionally selling at least 4 and then 10 times more expensive.

But, you still need to manage money rationally (distribute it in advance) so that unexpected market undulations ("market noise" and fabulous food) do not scare you.

Everything that happened in the last cycle (the manner in which the ETC asset moves) will most likely be repeated (a fool’s mantra) with a larger scale and marketing PR “attraction” in the future. But, this will only happen when ETH is in its first distribution zone, which is logical. Therefore, for the sake of “kopecks”, do not lose coins.

If you are a trader, increase coins using volatility as part of your position.
If you cannot call yourself a trader, buy and forget. Leave some of the money in case of a second drawdown zone (preferably, but not required). At the pump, sell in parts and don’t be greedy. Neither now nor after a while, do not be interested in the news and the opinion of the majority in chats and Twitter.

First of all, what is important is not the price chart itself, not the name of the cryptocurrency, but the time when trillions are poured into the market (that is, the market phase - distribution). For all the general euphoria and fantastic dreaminess of the majority, sell in parts in a grid and do not be greedy, or if you cannot cope with your greed, then at a time like this, when your cryptocurrency is on a big profit, use a stop loss protecting it, and do not re-enter if the profit fixed).

注释

06/03/2024 remember that there will be a halving of this “parent” cryptocurrency ETH

交易结束：到达目标

Good overnight impulse exit from consolidation +19% under the local reversal of BTC 05/21. The rollback begins.

交易开始

注释

09 07 2024

Now at the moment at the lower zone of the ascending channel at a price of 18.31 (level highlighted in green), which is the average price of this long-term set in the horizontal channel. If this zone is broken, the price goes down to the lower zone of the channel at about the price of 14 - 13 dollars. Slippage at the moment can be a squeeze because of the liquidity of the instrument (re-entry into the capitulation zone), but long-term and medium-term it does not matter. Then reversal to the channel resistance. Its breakthrough — super dump as before (due to liquidity and ETH hype in the future at the state level), that is, the price exit to the distribution zone.

Nothing to guess and assume here, everything is very clear, have patience. It is rational to work from the average price of key support/resistance zones and gain, increase your positions of alts. After the correction, there will be a very strong growth of prices of the whole market.

注释