This analysis assumes that the May 17 and June 21 lows, which break the wave 1 high from Jan 8, 2018 (not allowed according to EW principles) is in fact a wave 4 bottom, and we are currently in a wave 5. The Fib targets for the cycle W5 are around 6k-7k (the -0.146 and -0.382).
On the lower degree (orange count) we appear to have completed a wave 4, and are now in a wave 5, and on the lowest degree (yellow count) i believe we have just completed a wave 1 and are now going to retrace for a wave 2. The reasoning for this is the smaller count which is not shown here due to the timeframe. This yellow count is the most susceptible to change, so take it with a grain of salt until we have a wave 2 bottom confirmed, however I'll be looking to pick up ETH at under 4k CAD. That being said, if this count is wrong, it'll be wrong in the bullish direction ie: wave 1 on the yellow count is not in yet, therefore wave 2 will be higher, therefore wave 3 will be higher still.
Furthermore, if we assume that the cycle wave 4 is actually a nested 1-2-1-2, so we aren't breaking any EW rules and it lines up an exact hit (double bottom in fact) on the 61.8% fib, that would mean we are currently in a wave 3 of 3, with a minimum target of 10k CAD. This would line up with a move to ~90k for BTC and and also a bull market in growth stocks which have been consolidating over the past year. But that's a story for another day.
On the lower degree (orange count) we appear to have completed a wave 4, and are now in a wave 5, and on the lowest degree (yellow count) i believe we have just completed a wave 1 and are now going to retrace for a wave 2. The reasoning for this is the smaller count which is not shown here due to the timeframe. This yellow count is the most susceptible to change, so take it with a grain of salt until we have a wave 2 bottom confirmed, however I'll be looking to pick up ETH at under 4k CAD. That being said, if this count is wrong, it'll be wrong in the bullish direction ie: wave 1 on the yellow count is not in yet, therefore wave 2 will be higher, therefore wave 3 will be higher still.
Furthermore, if we assume that the cycle wave 4 is actually a nested 1-2-1-2, so we aren't breaking any EW rules and it lines up an exact hit (double bottom in fact) on the 61.8% fib, that would mean we are currently in a wave 3 of 3, with a minimum target of 10k CAD. This would line up with a move to ~90k for BTC and and also a bull market in growth stocks which have been consolidating over the past year. But that's a story for another day.
