Analysis
Conclusion: Given the recent surge, I would bias towards a retracement (be it 38.2% or 61.8%) and expect a correction to ~$2200 before pushing to the macro 61.8% retracement level at ~$3,400
- Price has crashed severely and a bottom seems to be in given the extent of the recent crash
- See the ideas linked below for further macro and micro analysis on Ethereum
- There are 2 options from here
- Bearish: Ascending wedge breakout to the downside to the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level
- Bullish: Trend-line bounce upwards to the 61.8% retracement
- These 2 options could potentially play-out and positions should be taking accordingly
- Should the bearish thesis play out first, the 4H 21MA could also be a potential bounce zone, should it not correct deeper to the 61.8% fibonacci level
Conclusion: Given the recent surge, I would bias towards a retracement (be it 38.2% or 61.8%) and expect a correction to ~$2200 before pushing to the macro 61.8% retracement level at ~$3,400
