ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Up Swing, Corrective Extension.

ETHUSD             Update: 334 resistance has been taken out, but there is no follow through and the current up swing is not performing as expected, prompting me to consider it an extension of the minor corrective wave.

First let's get into what is going on with the levels. The minor resistance zone 324 to 334 (,618 of previous bear swing) has been slowly compromised. The problem is the lack of momentum. When price pushed above 334, it should have attracted more buyers and momentum should follow. Instead price went no where which is not a bullish sign.

I am bullish in general, and I am still waiting for the pull back that I wrote about in previous reports. My plan is very simple: IF price retraces to the 306 to 295 support area (.618 of current bullish swing), and it can show a reversal pattern on a smaller time frame, then I will get back in. Keep in mind that I am flexible, and willing to get in sooner IF I see a compelling formation, but there is nothing to write about. If price just goes without me, I don't mind, it won't be the first time. I have lost more money because of the fear of missing out, than by missing out. Waiting is a more profitable strategy, but not a fun one.

In terms of wave count, this market should be in the beginning of the Wave 3 of 5 again, BUT this leg is not acting like a Wave 3 at all. The 334 break should have been awe inspiring and instead was lackluster to put it nicely. Plus Wave 3's are never the shortest wave, and right now when I compare it to the subdegree Wave 1 structure, it is shorter. This behavior leads me to believe the current up swing is nothing more than part of the subdegree Wave 2 correction. Which means there is still potential for a retrace to the support zone that I am interested in.

In summary, this market seems to go in spurts, and again is waiting its turn for the order flow. Price structure continues to be bullish , but the most recent leg up is more likely part of the corrective wave that this market has been in for a few days now. Keep in mind, a rally can appear out of nowhere, and I am okay with missing the move. I prefer to wait for a retrace into the 306 area and see if the market can meet my criteria in order for me to get back in. If I miss it, there will be more opportunities.

Comments and questions welcome.

Marc Principato, CMT |Author: Analyze Any Financial Market Like The Pros Using Price Action| | Cofounder (S.C.)

Please tell me you went long and didn't continue to wait yet again?
It lacks momentum because BitFinex buyers are hesitant and tired of the price and action near after a seeming break upwards only to be slammed down by sudden large market sell orders. Reeks of BitFinex manipulation and collateral issues. Which is why I do not use BitFin. Check Reddit BitFin threads - traders are not getting their ETH withdrawals.
@NoCode326, but since when is Bitfinex THE representative of the ETH market? They are just one of many exchanges. Price is not going because it's just not. I don't think the investors on Poloniex are saying, "You hear about those Bitfix buyers not getting their withdrawals? I am not going to buy any more ETH until they clear that up." There is just a general lack of motivation which will change as soon as some piece of significant news comes out. Then out of no where, buyers show up from every where.
NoCode326 MarcPMarkets
@MarcPMarkets, Watch the tape of other exchanges while watching the tape of BitFin. 9 out of 10 times BitFin leads the direction - BitFin moved the opposite direction first.many times in the last couple months. They are typically 2nd in volume to Bithumb. Hence, they are leaders of the market. I am not saying that people are not buying as a result of what they hear about BitFinex, they are not buying because of the price action that's primarily a result of whatever is going on at the BitFinex exchange. If anything it's a gift that people should grab with both fists.

BitFin lead the crash from $345 to $290 and was trading $5 to $8 cheaper then market during that ridiculous stop hunt.

The original run to $345 was the real deal and the move back down was a bear trap. The move back up was delayed many times by BitFin traders. Trust me, I watch many exchanges like a hawk....I won't be surprised if ETH tests ATH in 3 days considering action in ALTs in last couple days but I won't be surprised if it takes 2 more months either. BitFin seems to be trading normally this evening. Time will tell.
thank you for such clear graph as well as insight into your analysis logic. my favorite analyst on here!
@ShakryP, hehe thank you. I am glad you find my analysis helpful.
On the other hand, I've lost more money of the fear of going in than going in (In opportunity cost). Not too long ago when BTC was in the $500s I told myself to wait. Next time I looked it was over $1,000. At that point I said "This is crazy" let it correct. The next time I looked it was over $2,000 and at that point I said to myself "Now I really have to wait". Then again the next time I looked it was $3,000 and then $4,000.

You can wake up in the morning and see it at $650. You just never know when it will happen. For me ETH looks ripe for a pop. All indicators are looking that way from retracements pushing quickly towards resistance, declining volume, RSI strong, etc.
+1 回复
@TrustNOne, really? what money have you lost? Opportunity cost is not money. You can lose an unlimited amount of opportunity cost and still make your car payment. Capital on the other hand, is not an unlimited resource (unless you are the Federal Reserve). For every story that I have about missing a move in the market, I have like 20 stories of how much I saved by not getting caught in fake outs, unexpected news, and all kinds of market randomness. I learned the hard way that risk is the focus, profit comes as a result of good risk management.
TrustNOne MarcPMarkets
@MarcPMarkets, I respect your opinion and there is definitely a good argument to be made on your point of view. I found it impossible to time the entry and exit points perfectly. In terms of risk management, my argument is not to put all your eggs in one basket at one time. If you believe an asset will appreciate over the mid-long term you should not wait, hoping to catch the absolute bottom, because it's impossible. Just nibble, start building a core holding. Get a feel for the underlying asset and trade around your core holding. As long as you believe the the asset continues upwards in the mid & long term don't touch your core. Sell 1/2 of the core if you think the move was exaggerated and is about to reverse mid-term.
@TrustNOne, thank you for sharing this. This is a very valid strategy that has more to do with position sizing than timing and great for people who have longer term investment goals. Many new traders do not have the experience to manage positions this way and here is why: greed and fear will constantly coerce them to second guess, especially when a larger than expected correction unfolds, or some over exaggerated news item comes out and they don't know how to weigh the information. As long as the market maintains its trend, and there is not too much instability, this works nicely.
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