So you absolutely want to "invest" in crypto. Here is one.

2018年8月19日

We know people are using the ETH blockchain, mainly to gamble (I am not sure gambling on the blockchain is fully legal and regulations are a coming).

Imagine if 2 million people play little games & gamble and all plan on having 200$ accounts, ETH market cap should logically be around 400 million (at least),
that gives a price of 4$ by ETH token which sounds more realistic than 10.000$ or whatever trolls were calling for. This does not sound so unrealistic.

I do not know what the point of having a game or gambling site on Ethereum is (well ok there is for example the fact that every one knows every thing so you cannot get scammed in an usual way), but it is way to early anyway, these questions can be answered later.

People LOVE TO GAMBLE. The whole crypto bull market was just that, people betting their lives in hopes to get rich overnight.
techaddiction.ca/online-gambling-statistics.html

Online casino's revenues is in the tens of billions, and add to that other games. Smartphone apps are just the same.

People around the world have empty bank accounts, so how would they all pour thousands of dollars into ETH???? But they could keep a few bucks on it on average...

There are 2 billion smartphone users in the world!
So we could imagine 2 billion people want to use an ETH app, but most would spend maybe 10 bucks on it... With smartphone I think people spend less than 50$ a year (I spend 0 on apps).
How many of Ethereum users would have a wallet with more than $5 on it? Alot would just buy tokens and then spend them right away.

How big would the market cap have to be?

A market cap of 10 million is clearly too small for a yearly volume of 100 billion dollars.

2 billion people a market cap of 10 billion to support the micro transactions? That puts 1 ETH at $100 as the supply is not supposed to increase that much.
It is also possible the biggest apps hold quite a large amount of ETH, which keeps the price at a certain point. If the global revenue is 50 billion, then they could be keeping quite an amount. Overpriced-phone-sellers-that-somehow-gets-away-with-it Apple have 300 billion in cash reserves but I doubt anyone else can reproduce this, they got lucky and were able to rob everyone with their social status (lol?) phones they sell to fools with low social status. If a luxury articles sellers pops off on the blockchain they would be more like Amazon.
A market cap of 100 billion would mean 1 ETH = $1000, but companies have to pay their taxes in dollars so don't dream too much.


A lot of research is needed, these are the questions you should ask yourself:
- Why would people want to use Ethereum?
- How many people would use it?
- Can we look at similar examples and figure how much people spend on micro transaction and how much (Riot Points for example) they hold on average?
- Are there serious contenders to the platform that could replace it in the next few years?
- Does the platform need the token?
- What is the point of "investing" in tokens? It is so early and alot is yet to be discovered, there are so many variables and serious not a single thing is clear yet. Rofl and early so does not mean it is cheap.
- If say we estimate ETH fair price to be $5, will it ever drop lower? Or will there always be greedy people that don't bother to look at anything other than crypto, and will always buy it above its value? Then all it would do with time is slowly fall to the price it deserves and matches its actual use.
- Can this platform actually be used? Or will it just slow down when more than 5 people use it and can never be fixed?
- Do I really want to bother with these questions when there are more opportunities and more fun ways to make money in finance?
- Should I only buy it at $1 or less & wait and see where this all goes? More of a gamble than an investment.

etc.

If you believe in ETH then you are wrong. You should look at the facts and make a judgement based on those not on your "belief".

If we can figure out it has a high chance of surviving, imagining a scenario that is not overoptimistic to figure a price, but what could it be?

As long as every one is thinking "I do not want to miss out" and fighting to buy something, it will be overvalued (how dumb is that XD).
There is zero reason to buy something so many people want. Even if it crashed 90% there is still very high demand and legions of "believers".
ETH would have to drop to below $25 to start thinking about making estimates.
Only certain thing is at several hundred dollars a unit and armies of fans holding onto it it is overvalued and that I can say with 100% certainty.

No one ever made money by buying something every one wanted at the same time.

2018年8月19日

注释

Remember great inventions took several years to get adopted.
And it is going faster.
It took running water 50 years to get adopted.
For washing machines something like 40 years to get adopted was necessary.
The vaccum was used by more than 2/3 of households within 35 years.
20 years for electricity.
15 years for the radio.
Microwaves 10-15 years.

Closer to us:
The internet took about 10 years.
Social media took about 8 years.
Smartphones 4 years.

Awesome blockchain on the other hand has been around for 30 years, Cryptocurrencies for nearly 10 years now. Annnyyytime now.

All the great visionaries that know blockchaiçn will be widely used might want to take a look at this.

2018年8月19日

注释

All I did in this post was say ETH had potential to stay when the rest of crypto crumbles, and give the checklist to look at before investing, and crypto believers have said in my comments that I have an agenda against them and I hate crypto and I try my hardest to convince people to sell...

This pretty much sums up why NOW is NOT the time to buy.

Wait for this bubble to pop. Going to take a couple more years...