thomasnh88

ETH/USD - BULL TRAP! Why I'm not buying ETH from $900-$950 ran

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   以太坊/美元
Here is an idea on ETH from studying the charts - this move looks soooo similar to the last bull trap... it is my (best) guess what will happen next, which is why I am not buying into any BTC             breakout between $9.2k and $10k or ETH breakout from $900-$950.

Very similar move happening in BTC             right now - chart from 6k drop and run-up looks similar to the move from $11k drop and run to $17k. Which ended in a huge bull trap. And remember ETH's last move to $1240 was the "delayed version" of the BTC             move to $17k.

Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
评论: For now, ETH and BTC is acting exactly how I predicted and topped out at $940 and $9900 respectively - followed by a red candle pullback. If my prediction of a Bull Trap is correct, then we will not go past these prices again, we might touch them again, but not break them to the upside.

If in case we break through that level of resistance and continue up, then I might consider revisiting this idea and change my mind. Until then, I stick to it.

I will update later. Happy trading.

Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
评论: So, BTC broke through $10k (barely) and retraced back to under $9900, where it is sitting now. ETH didn't go above $945 and selling volume has appeared. I think the above chart pattern looks spot on and I will keep to this idea for now. I think we will see a slow decline with lower lows and lower highs from here, followed by bigger selloffs. I could be wrong though, it is crypto, haha.

Not buying here... Let's see how it plays out. Happy trading!

Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
评论: Both BTC and ETH is holding better than anticipated at these levels. At least for now. Still not bullish though.

Volume is low and both BTC and ETH has started to see lower highs and lower lows since they topped out. If BTC can't hold 9200-9400 'ish level and ETH can't hold 900 level... I would expect a bigger sell off and the retracement back to $6000 and $550-600 to begin.

And yes, I think ETH is still very much dependent on BTC at this stage.

Not buying here... Let's see how it plays out. Happy trading!

Thoughts? Happy to discuss. This is my opinion - and an idea - not financial advice.
评论: Not changing my idea here. Target and timing might be a bit off, as it is moving slower than anticipated, but I believe the result will be the same. It might just be closer to $1000.
评论: The pattern obviously changed and now looks a bit different. I did nail the top though. However it has been able to hold and go sideways at these levels for 5 days... waiting for breakout or downtrend confirmation here. Very risky! But I expect it to go down.
What's your opinion now ?
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@mmm22_, good question! The pattern obviously changed as it reached the top, which I sort of nailed though... however it has been able to hold and go sideways at these levels for 5 days... waiting for breakout or downtrend confirmation here. Very risky! I think it depends a lot on what BTC does these next few days.

What are your thoughts?
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mmm22_ thomasnh88
@thomasnh88, well I'm a noob here that already lost most of his 400% gains during the last month lol, so I'm hoping it will go down too to buy again. I have read tons of analysis that says btc will touch $6000 before it can get a new ATH, but as you said, it has been sideways for the past days, and for what I have read it means price is stabilizing so it could go high. Others say eth could touch $780 on this starting downtrend, I hope so ! cheers !
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@mmm22_, we all live and learn. Important thing is what we decide to do about the mistakes we learned from. Do you have a new (and better) strategy in place - and more importantly, will you take action on it when BTC hits $6k or $18k?

Check out my new idea, and watch the $9k level on BTC! Cheers!

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Totally agree. Its a very strong repeat.
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@MVPMC, yes very similar! thanks for sharing.
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I made this to compare with 6 months ago: https://i.imgur.com/zWXe1Cv.png

It looks like we're either on 17 July 2017, or 18 July 2017.

Here's what I'm seeing: https://i.imgur.com/Ro8GGCE.png

We could still go up or down depending on where we are and if we will even follow at all. Just an idea though.
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thomasnh88 madwarrior
@madwarrior, thanks for sharing. That is definitely possible. The biggest difference to me, is that we just had a parabolic move up (10x), in a very short timeframe. So I wouldn't compare with the move in July. We haven't had a parabolic move like that since 2013/2014... Which is why I don't believe we will just soar back up. I think we are in a bigger correction/bear market for at least a few months, before we will find bottom, consolidate and slowly start to go up in a more sustainable way.

In 2014 we did have bull trap ("dead cat bounce" type of move) that took us up over 100% after 70% retrace - after which it went to new lows and ultimately retraced 84%. That is why there is a chance we go to 12k, if history repeats itself. But even if we do, I think we will see 6k or lower again.

All in my humble opinion. I could be wrong and get left behind. After all, it is crypto :D
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good pattern recognition
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thomasnh88 timyounkin
@timyounkin, Thank you, lets see how it plays out! :) I could be wrong and left in the dust, haha
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