ETHUSD Update: 306 Resistance Can Lead To Triangle.

ETHUSD Update: The 279 support was tested and held as price has bounced back up to 300 but this market looks poised for a minor consolidation with 306 being a tough resistance at the moment.

I will begin with the wave count since it offers the best perspective on this situation. Elliot Wave can be very complex especially if you get too detail oriented with it. It is best used for a broader "road map" in my opinion which means the wave counts do not have to be perfect.

With that being said, there are two scenarios I am watching for. The first is the the failed high off of the 306 resistance (.618 of broad bear swing). I interpret the failed high as the minor Wave 4 unfolding into a small triangle between 306 and 279 for a limited time (couple of days) before resuming the uptrend which can take this market into the 350 highs.

The alternate scenario is that the current leg up is the minor Wave 5 that will complete the larger degree Wave 3 which will take this market into the 350s sooner. This scenario would be in play if the 315 high is taken out.

Either way, the broader trend is still intact as long as price stays above the 263 support level . Remember that these evaluations are not predictions, they are interpretations based on price action. This includes observing wave counts that imply certain market conditions, chart patterns and price structures. These are clues that indicate which way the market is more likely to go. People expect all science, and forget that there is an art to this.

In terms of trading, I am still interested in the 279 support. I am leaning toward the first scenario of going into a small triangle and trying to buy a retest of the low for a more attractive risk/reward. If I can buy in the low 280s and use the mid 250s as my stop, again using the 330s to 350s as a target, my RR is close to 2:1.

If a breakout of 315 occurs instead, that is a buying opportunity also, it just carries more risk and is not exactly my style of trading. There are two ways to adjust though, buy smaller with a wide stop, or buy regular size with a stop just below 300. With a 330 to 350 target, your RR can be 1:1 or slightly better.

In summary, this market is strong and I prefer to buy pullbacks. A failed high off the 306 resistance can put this market into a minor triangle which can retest the 279 area while a push beyond 315 signals a breakout and opens the door to the 350 area highs sooner. Both scenarios offer buying opportunities, it just depends on your style of managing the risk associated with each one.

Questions and comments welcome.

Marc Principato, CMT |Author: Analyze Any Financial Market Like The Pros Using Price Action| | Cofounder (S.C.)

May we get some updates please?
the question is this-)) is it the end of rally or retrace and further movement up?
Yeah its an interesting moment with equal chance to move up or down. I would call it the point of bifurcation when a small push can vector it up or down. but to me market lost an energetic impulse and doubt me with 350 high. Im very thankful to people posting here especially Marc , mr Lavrov and lady Dian. It helps to build a picture of events on the market.
MarcPMarkets cryptofan07
@cryptofan07, yeah getting different perspectives is a great way to piece together your own perspective. There is certainly a lack of something, because when BTC leads, this market is not following, I wrote my next two reports on this topic.
I cannot agree with you more on this strategy. I have accumulated a small portion right around 300s zone. In case a straight shot movement happens, I will not be missing the train. I am also sitting on my hands monitoring a pull back to the 270 zone. Entry would probably be around low 280 after a bounce from 270 ensuring 270 continues to be a solid support zone. You are correct, I would say the pullback is much more likely than not. If I were to put a percent on this, I would go around 60 - 70% pullback vs low 30s -40% chance of a straight shot heading to mid 300s (350). Once again thank you for your intellect. Anything I might have missed?
MarcPMarkets unitednoobies
@unitednoobies, we are on the same page. Great perspective. The retrace is unfolding as I write this, so now we have to see how well these supports hold up.
+1 回复
Enjoy your charts and comments very much, thank you!
MarcPMarkets HenrikBoyander
@HenrikBoyander, you're welcome. Glad you find my evaluations useful.
MarcPMarkets bradritterbtc
@bradritterbtc, thank you. I'm glad you find it helpful.
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