Hi all.
I held a short position on Ethereum for three months (July-October), which gave me just a zero sum exit.
It's already good that I wasn't liquidated.
But I didn't earn anything on that trading pair.
I am still considering entering a short position on Ethereum and
I still have the same opinion about market situation.
The market has not exhausted its bearish potential.
Those who have been trading cryptocurrencies for a long time know that globally the crypto market is not rising against the stock market, and can only rally based on a fundamentally good situation.
We expect FED key rate hike, we expect SPX to fall further below 3000 points (all the way down to 2100).
All this will take both Bitcoin to the $ 10,000 level
and Ethereum to the $ 400 level.
The market's timid hopes for growth now have their own price ceiling.
It's important for us to consider where it might be.
I open my favourite 3D chart and I see signs of local growth emerging.
The Kumo cloud has been broken up, Kijun-sen line has been broken, and the EMA50 has been broken… Well.
This is quite promising given the indicator readings.
However, a true bull market requires a much different picture in my mind than the bounce we are seeing here…
1. Test global support on the weekly chart. I believe this is $400.
2. Altcoins can make a real upward rally after Bitcoin has finished a dowtrend correction entirely, there is no real altcoin growth without a genuine BTC correction (see my old idea about bitcoin "85%-85%"). $ 10,000 level is still important.
3. Ethereum will need to test EMA200 line, and upper bound of Kumo cloud. This is where I expect inability to confirm the trend. A consolidation above $2,100 would require significantly more expensive Bitcoin. And we do not see the end of the correction.
4. Of the positive factors is only that Bitcoin dominance is falling again. Which allows Etherium to hold capitalisation. Yes, but you need to always remember that falling Dominance and rising Bitcoin is one picture... and falling Bitcoin falling Dominance is another... The second one is happening right now.
So, here are my thoughts, I will monitor the situation to let you know if I opened a short position at around $2095 with a stop loss of $2,300.
P.S. Also, I have been paying attention to the ETH/USDT chart @Bullish_Traders . I am not a wave trader and he is.
In his picture the failure level is $1730. There are indicative signs of growth on the daily chart, and I find it hard to believe that $1730 is the ceiling.
However, his picture is coherent and it deserves attention. I suggest you also look at his chart before making a decision.
I held a short position on Ethereum for three months (July-October), which gave me just a zero sum exit.
It's already good that I wasn't liquidated.
But I didn't earn anything on that trading pair.
I am still considering entering a short position on Ethereum and
I still have the same opinion about market situation.
The market has not exhausted its bearish potential.
Those who have been trading cryptocurrencies for a long time know that globally the crypto market is not rising against the stock market, and can only rally based on a fundamentally good situation.
We expect FED key rate hike, we expect SPX to fall further below 3000 points (all the way down to 2100).
All this will take both Bitcoin to the $ 10,000 level
and Ethereum to the $ 400 level.
The market's timid hopes for growth now have their own price ceiling.
It's important for us to consider where it might be.
I open my favourite 3D chart and I see signs of local growth emerging.
The Kumo cloud has been broken up, Kijun-sen line has been broken, and the EMA50 has been broken… Well.
This is quite promising given the indicator readings.
However, a true bull market requires a much different picture in my mind than the bounce we are seeing here…
1. Test global support on the weekly chart. I believe this is $400.
2. Altcoins can make a real upward rally after Bitcoin has finished a dowtrend correction entirely, there is no real altcoin growth without a genuine BTC correction (see my old idea about bitcoin "85%-85%"). $ 10,000 level is still important.
3. Ethereum will need to test EMA200 line, and upper bound of Kumo cloud. This is where I expect inability to confirm the trend. A consolidation above $2,100 would require significantly more expensive Bitcoin. And we do not see the end of the correction.
4. Of the positive factors is only that Bitcoin dominance is falling again. Which allows Etherium to hold capitalisation. Yes, but you need to always remember that falling Dominance and rising Bitcoin is one picture... and falling Bitcoin falling Dominance is another... The second one is happening right now.
So, here are my thoughts, I will monitor the situation to let you know if I opened a short position at around $2095 with a stop loss of $2,300.
P.S. Also, I have been paying attention to the ETH/USDT chart @Bullish_Traders . I am not a wave trader and he is.
In his picture the failure level is $1730. There are indicative signs of growth on the daily chart, and I find it hard to believe that $1730 is the ceiling.
However, his picture is coherent and it deserves attention. I suggest you also look at his chart before making a decision.
交易开始:
ETH has an EMA squeeze on weekly chart. The cross from EMA200/EMA20 is already in place. I have started to take a short position from $1280 level
交易开始:
Opened a short position at $ 1235.
交易结束：到达止损:
Next attempt to open at $1,270
