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FGBL: Short und Medium Term Risiko für den DAX

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Die Deutsche Industrie hat im August deutlich mehr Aufträge als erwartet erhalten (finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/deutschland-industrie-erhaelt-deutlich-mehr-auftraege-als-erwartet-5733251). Das Eurozone PMI weist aktuell die höchsten Werte seit Jahren auf (ft.com/content/715dc0e2-9025-3fed-8d94-ef8f66dfd48d).

Die Renditen der Bundesanleihen sind aktuell immer noch auf sehr niedrigem Niveau.

Die Schere zwischen ultra niedrigen Renditen und positiven bis sehr positiven. Konjunkturdaten wird überwiegend durch die Anleihekäufe der ECB verursacht.

Die Zinsen steigen aktuell in den USA bereits spürbar. Die Renditen Deutscher Bundesanleihen sollten dem folgen. Für den DAX ist diesem Momentum längerfristig bremsend oder negativ.

注释

FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: FED IS SUPPORTING MORE UPSIDEMOMENTUM FOR GLOBAL STOCKMARKETS
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Bullard: Fed 'should defend' inflation target or risk losing credibility
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QUOTE:
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Fed needs to mount a clear defense of its 2 percent inflation target and stop raising rates until the pace of price increases strengthens, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday.
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Fed needs to mount a clear defense of its 2 percent inflation target and stop raising rates until the pace of price increases strengthens, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday.
The central bank risks losing credibility, and perhaps triggering a recession, if it continues to insist on "normalization" without better evidence that prices are firming, he said in an interview with Reuters.
"If you are going to have an inflation target you should defend it. If you say you are going to hit the inflation target then you should try to hit it and maintain credibility," Bullard said in an interview with Reuters."
investing.com/news/economy-news/bullard-fed-should-defend-inflation-target-risks-losing-credibility-otherwise-540661

注释

FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: GDP, GERMANY, EXPECTATIONS
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Germany's economic upswing to lose some momentum in second year-half: ministry
investing.com/news/economy-news/germanys-economic-upswing-to-lose-some-momentum-in-second-yearhalf-ministry-541026

Geringere Wachstumserwartungen verringern den Druck auf Staatsanleihen.

注释

FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: US TAX REFORM

Die angekündigten Steuersenkungen in den USA werden nach dem aktuellen Stand der Dinge die Staatsverschuldung erhöhen. Für US-Staatsanleinn ist dies langfristig negativ.

If Senate can pass budget resolution, tax cuts have strong chance: Zoellick
marketwatch.com/story/if-senate-can-pass-budget-resolution-tax-cuts-have-good-chance-zoellick-2017-10-14?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

注释

FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: ECB MONETARY POLICY:

KURZFRISITG RÜCKENWIND FÜR DEN DAX & EUROPEAN STOCKMARKETS

ECB’s Draghi: Commercial real estate valuations stretched, but no signs of bubbles in stocks or bonds

ECB President Mario Draghi said he doesn't think Europe is in a "bubbly situation"
Draghi said valuations in the prime commercial real estate market look stretched
SOURCE: cnbc.com/2017/10/14/draghi-commercial-real-estate-stretched-no-bubbles-in-stocks-bonds.html

注释

Kommentar: FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: ECB MONETARY POLICY:

KURZFRISITG RÜCKENWIND FÜR DEN DAX & EUROPEAN STOCKMARKETS

ECB’s Draghi: Commercial real estate valuations stretched, but no signs of bubbles in stocks or bonds

Diese Aussage sollte kurzfristig den Bundfuture supporten, der technisch am Freitag ein kurzfristiges Kaufsignal geliefert hatte. Langfristig bleibt der bias "short". Es gibt keinen SL für diese Trading Idea - es geht um die langfristige Erkennung eines neuen Trendes.

注释

Kommentar: FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: FED'S CHAIR

What analysts are saying

“Given that a December rate hike is almost entirely priced in, the dollar will be driven by longer-term expectations. The three rate hikes plotted on the Fed’s dot plot for 2018, is nowhere near to markets’ expectations of only one, and the main risk facing the greenback is who will lead the Fed after Janet Yellen departs,” said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM.
marketwatch.com/story/dollar-firms-as-feds-yellen-reiterates-rate-hike-view-catalan-uncertainty-persists-2017-10-16?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

注释

Here’s how bond markets could react to the ECB next week

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will return to the spotlight Thursday
The focus will be on how he plans to trim the bank's asset purchase policy

Quote: cnbc.com/2017/10/20/heres-how-bond-markets-could-react-to-the-ecb-next-week.html

注释

Germany's Greens warn against blind adherence to balanced budget investing.com/news/world-news/germanys-greens-warn-against-blind-adherence-to-balanced-budget-546660

交易开始

Deutsche Anleihen: Deutliche Kursgewinne nach EZB-Sitzung de.4-traders.com/boerse-nachrichten/Deutsche-Anleihen-Deutliche-Kursgewinne-nach-EZB-Sitzung--25371731/?utm_medium=RSS&utm_source=tradingview&utm_content=20171026
Anmerkung: Kurzfristiger Support für EURO-Anleihen. Positiv für Europäische Aktienmärkte bis Jahresende.

交易开始

Treasury Yields Are Surging and Bond Traders Are Starting to Get Nervous

Ten-year benchmark at highest since March has traders nervous
Looming supply glut from sovereign issuers damps sentiment

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to the highest level in more than nine months, leading Bill Gross at Janus Henderson Group to declare a bond bear market just ahead of a deluge of sovereign debt sales.
The benchmark U.S. yield rose as much as six basis points to 2.54 percent, a level last seen in March, and the Treasury curve steepened the most in three weeks, as a looming glut of bond supply from the U.S., the U.K., Japan and Germany coincided with a surprise cut in purchases of long-dated Japanese government bonds by the Bank of Japan.
Even though central bank watchers said the BOJ’s actions aren’t interpreted as an imminent shift from ultra-accommodative policy by Japan’s monetary authority, it’s yet another sign of central banks stepping back from global bond markets -- just as the U.S. is about to sell the most debt in eight years. Add to that rising market expectations around inflation, and traders are starting to wager that Treasuries are about to break out of their tightest range in a half-century.
“We’re seeing a lot of overseas buyers who would come in every time we’d have a move close to these levels who aren’t coming in anymore,” said Michael Franzese, New York-based head of fixed-income trading at MCAP LLC, a broker-dealer. “That’s kind of scaring me a little bit. One eye is constantly on the exit button.”
The 10-year yield moved above 2.5 percent earlier Tuesday before paring its gain, and then resumed its upward shift in U.S. trading hours, making fresh highs. It was at 2.542 percent as of 12:16 p.m. in New York. The yield curve from two to 10 years steepened by 5.4 basis points, the most in over a year, to 57.43 basis points.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/u-s-10-year-yield-climbs-as-boj-action-spurs-exit-speculation

交易开始

10 YR T-Note Futures: Major Support Line Broken

注释

Short Term Target Reached: US TBond Yield 2,60%

Stockmarktes vs. Bond Markets:
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asian-shares-step-back-from-2007-peak-oil-at-threeyear-high-1084803

交易开始

Wall Street slips after report China may slow U.S. bond purchases

Wall Street's major indexes slipped on Wednesday, stalling the rally that marked the start of 2018, after a report that China is considering slowing or halting purchases of U.S. government debt.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) , Microsoft (O:MSFT) and Amazon (O:AMZN) were among the biggest drags on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, while a 0.7 percent drop in Boeing (N:BA) and Caterpillar (N:CAT) weighed on the Dow.
The S&P and the Nasdaq have closed at record highs on every single day in 2018, buoyed by optimism over global economic growth and expectations of a strong quarterly earnings.
"For a market that was probably looking for reason to take a pause, it's not unreasonable to use today's rise in yield as a catalyst," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR in Boston.
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-sink-on-report-china-may-slow-us-bond-purchases-1086193

交易开始

Reports on China slowing US debt buying could be based on wrong information, source says
cnbc.com/2018/01/10/reports-on-china-slowing-us-debt-buying-could-be-based-on-wrong-information-source-says.html