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The neverendless story of the EUR Short

已更新

First things first:
The German Inflation today will come lower (3.7 or 3.8) than the consensus forecasts (4.0)
-> Great for my EUR Short

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Business as usual:
The German Inflation data comes at 3.8 -> lower than the consensus expected it!

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The Eurozone inflation data today should be weaker than consensus (3.1) expects it.

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The Eurozone inflation data comes as I forecasted weaker (2.9) than consensus expected it.

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Tomorrow we're looking forward to the RBA rate decision. The market prices just a 50% chance of a rate hike where as I think the probability is more like a 90%.
So AUD strength should be the logical consequence, lets see!

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The RBA did raise rates, but their statement was extraordinarily dovish, which led to the pullback in AUD.
It almost sounded as if the market had "forced" the RBA to raise rates when it didn't really want to.
-> a weak sign from the RBA, not exactly brimming with confidence.

This will not change the EURAUD short trade in the long term, as stubborn inflation and the robust economy will support the AUD.
Two points that cannot be said about the eurozone ;)

交易开始

Trade is up and running. This week we get important data out of Australia, lets see!

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📊🇪🇺Industrial Production Data out of the Eurozone will come weaker than the consensus expects it.
-> Good for my EURAUD Shorts

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As forecasted the 📊🇪🇺Industrial Production Data out of the Eurozone comes weaker than the consensus expected it.
-> easy :)

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The trade is ahead with +200 pips. As soon as it reaches +250 pips or +1%, I will take a partial profit.

The EUR PMIs are due today, and if they turn out to be as disastrous as the last ones, the EURAUD's downward slide will continue at an accelerated pace. Let's see!

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📊🇩🇪The German Inflation data will be weaker today than the consensus expects it.
-> wonderful for my EUR Short!:)

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📊🇩🇪As forecasted the German Inflation data was much weaker (3.2) yesterday than the consensus (3.5) expected it.
Easy game✅️
And my EUR Shorts just keep printing, I love it!😉

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📊🇪🇺The Eurozone CPI today will of course also come in weaker than the consensus expects it.
-> Watch the magic! 😉

🔮As I already forecasted in July (!)
("In december we will have a CPI in the eurozone at around 3%")🔮

✅️And here we are, at the start of december, with a sub 3% reading today✅️

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📊🇪🇺As forecasted Inflation data from the EU came in lower than consensus expectations✅️

🔮 We are now as predicted in July
(Quote: "and reach the 2% target in the first half of 2020 at the latest.")
closer to the 2% target than the market and the ECB in particular dared to dream a few months ago 🤫

📉The 🇪🇺EURAUD🇦🇺 short is performing nicely and is currently in profit with over +400 pips.
As soon as the support at 1.64500 breaks, all hell will break loose and I expect a push of another 200 pips downwards (for now)✅️

Lets see!

交易结束：到达目标

✅️TARGET HIT +510 Pips of Profit✅️

🟢What a nice and easy trade that was🟢

Here are the hard numbers:
Profit: +510 Pips✅️
Time from Entry to TP: 2 weeks✅️
Pips in Drawdown: 0✅️
Time in Drawdown:0✅️

🟢Your welcome🟢

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🏛🇪🇺 This week we have the ECB meeting and, as mentioned, it will revise its growth and inflation forecasts massively downwards!
-> In addition, we have many, many other hugely important data points coming up (FED, CPI, etc.) that will really shake up the market.

🟢 If the EURAUD is driven up several 100s of pips as a result, I would hit it again from above
(In addition to my other remaining EURAUD short (currently +300 Pips✅️ ) see below)

The only way to be happy is by shorting the EURAUD

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🟢 As the EURAUD continues to fall, my other EURAUD short is also not far from the TP.
If we do see a correction here, I would use it for further short entries ✅️

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🟢 So far no big corrections in EURAUD, it will probably fall right trough the 1.614 support this week✅️

📊🔮 The next focus will be on the EUR inflation data this week. It will show a rise in inflation and lift it back towards the 3% mark.
-> This could put the ECB in the wrong boat, as this boost will only be temporary due to base effects and a one-off effect from the German energy price brake.

The February and March inflation data at the latest will clearly show the misconception of the ECB about higher inflation in the long term ✅️

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📊🇪🇺PPI Data out of the Eurozone will come weaker today than the consensus expects it.
-> Great for my EURAUD Shorts!✅️

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📊🇪🇺As forecasted the PPI Data out of the Eurozone was weaker than the consensus expected it.
-> easy✅️

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📊🇦🇺Employment data out of Australia disappointed to a great extent.
➡️-64k overall and -100k full-time Jobs is as bad as it can get.
➡️A big blow for all hopes of a further rate hike from the RBA in february and the question is now if we see further hikes in 2024 at all or if this hiking cycle has ended.
📊🇦🇺The Aussie CPI data out on 31. January will be a big factor here, lets see!

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🏛🇦🇺 The RBA bared its hawkish teeth today and firmly pushed back market expectations for a first rate cut in May.

-> I agree: unlike the ECB, the RBA is in no hurry to rush ahead with hasty rate cuts

📊🇦🇺 Next week's labour market data from Australia will very likely confirm this view🟢

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This week we have the
📊🇪🇺PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) from the eurozone and the
📊🇦🇺 Labour market data from Australia, two extremely important data points for the EURAUD.

Meanwhile, the pair is getting closer and closer to an extremely attractive short zone.
-> I will wait for this week's events to pass before possibly building another short in EURAUD🟢

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🔮My crystal ball tells me:
📊🇪🇺The EUR Inflation data (CPI) will come weaker today than the consensus expects it.
-> wonderful for my EUR Short!🟢

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🔮 As predicted, the 📊🇪🇺EUR inflation data was lower than expected by consensus.
-> The EUR subsequently saw weakness
-> EURAUD is (slowly) heading south again🟢
-> All conditions (for the ECB) to cut interest rates are met ✅️

🏛🇪🇺 Nevertheless, I expect the ECB (out of sheer stubbornness) to wait until June for the first rate cut.
-> If Lagarde hints at interest rate cuts for June AND July today, the beatings for the EUR will continue until morale improves💥💥💥

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📊🔮My crystal ball tells me:
EUR CPI (inflation data) today will be lower than consensus expected.
-> This is excellent for my EUR shorts🟢

🔮 As predicted a year ago, 📊🇪🇺EUR inflation will already hit the ECB's inflation target of 2% today (contrary to the ECB's completely abstruse forecasts)

🔮My forecast:🔮
The ECB will cut interest rates again in September✅️