EURGBP: BULLISH TARGET 1 ARCHIVIED!

OUR MEDIUM TERM ANALYSIS
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BoE rate rise not coming in August 2016, wait until February 2017.
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BoE Board had revised their BoE Bank Rate forecast and now expect the first 25bp rise in February 2017, vs August 2016 previously. Our August 2016 forecast has been under some pressure from softer data, external and domestic, but we had expected more resistance from the BoE (the MPC has repeatedly pushed back against dovish market pricing). Whilst we would normally hesitate to change a Bank Rate forecast in response to a single speech (the scars from the Governor’s June 2014 warning that ‘rates could rise sooner than markets expect’ are still visible!), this time is different: the Governor’s assessment of the risks now points in the same direction as our own and the financial markets.

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UPDATES: TARGET 2 IS STILL IN PLAY