The "up" channel (possible bearish flag!) and current "up" trendline which is still holding at the moment suggests to me that we might see some further upside in the coming days/week. Especially since we've not yet tested that 38.2 fib level of the May 2014 to March 2015 down move, which still looks so attractive to me as a short-term "up" target... This level also coïncides with a possible AB=CD pattern and corrective WXY structure as seen on the weekly charts (as posted in linked idea "EUR/USD: The bigger picture!..."). We also have a possible ascending triangle still in play (false breakout on 08-24) Further support may come from the "down" trendline of the former triangle, holding as we speak (depends where you drew it, but oh well...).
Alot of short-term "UP" signs for the coming days/week if you ask me...
We are at the moment caught in between the 100- and 200 MA and should be breaking above (signs point to it) or below one or the other soon now...
The NFP data expected later this week could be the ideal "excuse" for smart money to get to where they want to get (profit target or a better price to get in to a trade in the opposite direction...) so we will probably see some up- and down movements and might see some false breakouts until that time...
It wouldn't surprise me if we get a violent move after the NFP to one of the targets (up or down, we'll see) and after that a possible violent reversal, who knows...??
A possible bullish pattern (not confirmed and very preliminary) could be forming if we get to the 38.2 fib level and retrace all the way down to around where PA meets the lonterm "up" trendline (red). Keep in mind though that if we get there then the bearish flag might come in play and we might be at the verge of a longterm downtrend continuation, especially if we break that red trendline!! Pattern could then turn up to be not that bullish at all...
Remember: longterm up-trend but since 2008 we consolidated with downward bias and we broke consolidation with this big move down from May 2014 to March 2015!!
My current preferred gameplan is up (short-term, days/week if PA confirms):
(1) Looking to add longs if we break above the 200MA with initial target 1.18
(2) Further longs if we clearly break and consolidate above the 1.18 level (possible targets: 1.20 psych level, fib levels and possible harmonic pattern (bat) completion around 1.2375).
Alternative:
(3) If we get below the 100MA and supporting trendlines I'll be looking for shorts on smaller timeframes with same targets as in (4) below.
(4) Looking for signs of a possible and clear reversal @ 1.18 with possible formation of an harmonic pattern (shark?): several targets/support areas can be found on the chart, eventually getting to the lower channel (flag) boundary and the red "up" trendline.
LOOKING FOR FURTHER CLUES AFTER THE NFP REACTIONS!!
Alot of short-term "UP" signs for the coming days/week if you ask me...
We are at the moment caught in between the 100- and 200 MA and should be breaking above (signs point to it) or below one or the other soon now...
The NFP data expected later this week could be the ideal "excuse" for smart money to get to where they want to get (profit target or a better price to get in to a trade in the opposite direction...) so we will probably see some up- and down movements and might see some false breakouts until that time...
It wouldn't surprise me if we get a violent move after the NFP to one of the targets (up or down, we'll see) and after that a possible violent reversal, who knows...??
A possible bullish pattern (not confirmed and very preliminary) could be forming if we get to the 38.2 fib level and retrace all the way down to around where PA meets the lonterm "up" trendline (red). Keep in mind though that if we get there then the bearish flag might come in play and we might be at the verge of a longterm downtrend continuation, especially if we break that red trendline!! Pattern could then turn up to be not that bullish at all...
Remember: longterm up-trend but since 2008 we consolidated with downward bias and we broke consolidation with this big move down from May 2014 to March 2015!!
My current preferred gameplan is up (short-term, days/week if PA confirms):
(1) Looking to add longs if we break above the 200MA with initial target 1.18
(2) Further longs if we clearly break and consolidate above the 1.18 level (possible targets: 1.20 psych level, fib levels and possible harmonic pattern (bat) completion around 1.2375).
Alternative:
(3) If we get below the 100MA and supporting trendlines I'll be looking for shorts on smaller timeframes with same targets as in (4) below.
(4) Looking for signs of a possible and clear reversal @ 1.18 with possible formation of an harmonic pattern (shark?): several targets/support areas can be found on the chart, eventually getting to the lower channel (flag) boundary and the red "up" trendline.
LOOKING FOR FURTHER CLUES AFTER THE NFP REACTIONS!!
