ANALYSIS #1: EURUSD: BEARISH In Downtrend But How Far Will Go?

Last 2 weeks, we saw this pair shoot up higher, breaking the triangle pattern and looking very bullish only to have it completely retrace back down from that spike high back into the triangle and stay there. Not even the NFP moved it. So what does this kind of price action tell us? Let's dive into this pair and see.....

WEEKLY CHART - Updating The Weekly Chart I Posted 28 Days Ago: Contracting Triangle Looking More Likely
This is the weekly chart I posted 28 days ago before prices spiked up.....
Here it is now updated with the latest price action. In the weekly view, you can clearly see that the recent spike and subsequent retreat in prices is showing as being contained within the triangle and has NOT broken it (closed above).
Contracting Triangle Completion Scenario
Here, I cleaned up the chart to show only the contracting triangle pattern....

DAILY CHART - A Completed Wolfe Wave Targeting 1.00000 Level
A Wolfe Wave has been completed at the recent spike highs which was a E point "overthrow" and a subsequent deep retrace back under the upper trend line of the Wolfe Wave. This is of course bearish price action. Notice that the target line for the Wolfe Wave is almost targeting exactly at the 1.00000 price level. A very psychologically significant level.

I have also re-labeled this completed Wolfe Wave as a 3-3-5 flat wave as a possible end to the larger wave (4) corrective wave with the current decline in prices as the start of the final wave (5) of the MAJOR DOWNTREND.

4HR CHART - Two Scenarios As To How Prices May Unfold In The Near-Term Going Down
There are 2 ways that I see the current price action unfolding although both have the same result in the end:
Scenario #1 - A POSSIBLE POTENTIAL Bullish Crab
Prices will rise from its' current level back up to retest the upper trend line of the Wolfe Wave (and triangle. After hitting that upper trend line, prices will then fall. There is a POSSIBLE POTENTIAL Bullish crab here with its' B point marking the possible end of the wave 1 of the wave (5) and its C point yet to be established. Keep in mind, in this scenario, the triangle pattern can still be completed.
Scenario #2 - Completing The Triangle + A POSSIBLE POTENTIAL Bullish DEEP Crab
Obviously, the difference here is that prices will continue to decline more in possibly completing wave 1 of wave (5) right down to the lower trend line of the triangle and then bounce back up from there to retest the upper trend line of the Wolfe Wave in a wave 2 of (5). This would establish the B point of the DEEP crab right near that triangle's lower ascending trend line.

CONCLUSION AND MY TRADE PLAN
With the recent bearish price action, what I showed here could be the coming price action. There is not telling that I would be correct in this and subsequent price action could prove me completely wrong. However, a continued decline in prices CANNOT be ruled out and if so, this is how I see it happening.

I will wait for prices to retest the upper trend line of the triangle (and Wolfe Wave) before deciding to take any action. When it does and I see bearish price action, then I will SHORT this pair for a ride down in a wave (5) and heading to the 1.00000 level. For now, I am just watching and waiting.....