In this post I will mention how the EU-U.S. PMI data and U.S. initial jobless claims can affect the price direction?
- The forecasted data is expected to show a modest progress and Germany and EU PMI data and a modest drop in that's of the U.S., I expect the following possibilities,
1- EU and Germany upbeat PMI data ( General price range does not change, but would be likely to consider pullbacks within the price range (1.1950-1.1750) ).
2- EU and Germany downbeat PMI data ( General price range does not change, expected consolidation of (1.1900-1.1830) to be expected ahead of U.S. initial jobless claims which plays the second confirmation role for the downtrend to continue ( to break below 1.1840 targeting 1.1750 ).
3- U.S. initial jobless claims and U.S. upbeat PMI data ( downtrend continuation, to break below 1.1840 targeting 1.1750 ).
4- U.S. initial jobless claims and U.S. downbeat PMI data ( downtrend loses momentum, expected pullback within the price range of (1.1840-1.1970) ( PULLBACKS BUT NOT REVERSAL ).
DOWNBEAT DATA OF U.S. IF INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE ABOVE 450k
MONETARY POLICY , FISCAL POLICY OF ECB AND FED
1- ECB (dovish, extended PEPP, modest inflation )
2- FED (recent dovish, withdrawing fiscal support, tapering talks, split on sooner than later to go hawkish)
- ACCORDING TO MONETARY POLICY , FISCAL POLICY OF ECB AND FED, THAT HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT ON THE PAIR'S EXCHANGE RATE AND PRICE DIRECTION, I WOULD SAY THE PRICE RANGE IS EXPECTED TO BE (1.1950-1.1750) -
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
- THE HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS DELTA STRAIN IS INDUCING RENEWED CURBS IN SOME EU COUNTRIES AS IT LOOMS LARGE OVER THE TOURISM SEASON IN EUROPE, WHILE IN U.S. DOES NOT PLAN TO REQUIRE THAT VISITORS NEED TO BE VACCINATED ( SIGNS FOR MORE EXPECTED DEMAND ON USD AND BETTER U.S. TOURISM RECOVERY ) -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -
- The forecasted data is expected to show a modest progress and Germany and EU PMI data and a modest drop in that's of the U.S., I expect the following possibilities,
1- EU and Germany upbeat PMI data ( General price range does not change, but would be likely to consider pullbacks within the price range (1.1950-1.1750) ).
2- EU and Germany downbeat PMI data ( General price range does not change, expected consolidation of (1.1900-1.1830) to be expected ahead of U.S. initial jobless claims which plays the second confirmation role for the downtrend to continue ( to break below 1.1840 targeting 1.1750 ).
3- U.S. initial jobless claims and U.S. upbeat PMI data ( downtrend continuation, to break below 1.1840 targeting 1.1750 ).
4- U.S. initial jobless claims and U.S. downbeat PMI data ( downtrend loses momentum, expected pullback within the price range of (1.1840-1.1970) ( PULLBACKS BUT NOT REVERSAL ).
DOWNBEAT DATA OF U.S. IF INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE ABOVE 450k
MONETARY POLICY , FISCAL POLICY OF ECB AND FED
1- ECB (dovish, extended PEPP, modest inflation )
2- FED (recent dovish, withdrawing fiscal support, tapering talks, split on sooner than later to go hawkish)
- ACCORDING TO MONETARY POLICY , FISCAL POLICY OF ECB AND FED, THAT HAS THE BIGGEST EFFECT ON THE PAIR'S EXCHANGE RATE AND PRICE DIRECTION, I WOULD SAY THE PRICE RANGE IS EXPECTED TO BE (1.1950-1.1750) -
FUNDAMENTAL KEY QUOTES
- THE HIGHLY CONTAGIOUS DELTA STRAIN IS INDUCING RENEWED CURBS IN SOME EU COUNTRIES AS IT LOOMS LARGE OVER THE TOURISM SEASON IN EUROPE, WHILE IN U.S. DOES NOT PLAN TO REQUIRE THAT VISITORS NEED TO BE VACCINATED ( SIGNS FOR MORE EXPECTED DEMAND ON USD AND BETTER U.S. TOURISM RECOVERY ) -
- THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY -