The count appears mature to the down side. The sloppy and overlapping continuation lower over the past 2 weeks suggests we may be in an pattern. If correct, look for prices to run up to the origination of the pattern near 1.0830.
As labeled on the chart, 1.0430 is a key level. That is where blue iii would be the shortest of blue i, iii , v. That would break Elliott's rules so that can be used to establish risk or perhaps implement a stop and reverse.
has also been lagging dramatically. The in this downside move has not been robust.
Sentiment is currently near +1.24. If during the ECB announcement today or NFP announcement tomorrow, if the real time sentiment reading drops, that may suggest the bulls have an advantage (because SSI is a contrarian indicator).
Bottom line, this pair is ripe to bounce to the 1.08-1.09 handle. Above 1.1090 suggests a much large trend higher is ensuing. Bears can sharpen their claws int he 1.08-1.10 zone. 1.0430 is key to this view.
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The simplest answer is if EURUSD hits 1.1090, that seals up the Aug 24-Dec 3 down trend as a 3 wave affair and odds shift heavily towards a retest of 1.17.
Between now and 1.1090, it's tricky. Could retest the 1.05 lows, but the Bear's line in the sand is 1.1090.
Divergence will typically take place in the 5th wave position or B wave of an expanded flat. Since the ending diagonal appears in the 5th wave position, RSI divergence can warn a trader of the turn even if they didn't identify the ending diagonal. The ending diagonal, as you see above, has overlapping waves which means momentum is still pushing it lower, but not in impulsive fashion. It warns of a turn. Couple that with major news between today and tomorrow and it is an elevated chance of a bounce.
Best of luck in your trading Tupai.