In my previous analysis I have underlined that EUR would go on the upside to catch 1.375 for the last time before FED's and ECB intervention on the market.
FED will increase at certain point its interest rate, whereas ECB will spread a lot of cheap money in the market. Therefore, above 1.38 doesn't look sustainable for the market. However, FED will release some money in the market for the last time before the and of the QE3 or tappering, whereas ECB has just lowered its interest rate but didn't yet put into force its ABS/LTRO.
But i didn't take into account the timing, ie summer time where people sell EUR buy USD and there isn't a lot of volatility in the market.
On the big picture, we have a clear falling wedge formation and if we do observe the RSI , there is a clear bullish divergence, i.e if confirmed, there should be a break on the upside until 1.365 or 1.372. This may be very much the last hit on the upside before EUR come bellow 1.33 on a medium term basis.....
FED will increase at certain point its interest rate, whereas ECB will spread a lot of cheap money in the market. Therefore, above 1.38 doesn't look sustainable for the market. However, FED will release some money in the market for the last time before the and of the QE3 or tappering, whereas ECB has just lowered its interest rate but didn't yet put into force its ABS/LTRO.
But i didn't take into account the timing, ie summer time where people sell EUR buy USD and there isn't a lot of volatility in the market.
On the big picture, we have a clear falling wedge formation and if we do observe the RSI , there is a clear bullish divergence, i.e if confirmed, there should be a break on the upside until 1.365 or 1.372. This may be very much the last hit on the upside before EUR come bellow 1.33 on a medium term basis.....
