FED POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR EURUSD (Dec Meeting)
Hi All!
As I did back in August with the september meeting, I have decided to create a possibility of different Scenarios for the EURUSD pair for the month of December.
I have outlined 3 scenarios based on the price range seen and recheable so far this year, this would give you a good idea of where to buy, sell or hold positions if you are thinking about trading in Dec.
As ALWAYS! please be careful what you do, this is not for beginners but Im sure it would be a great time to try a few things with demo money as well.
In a nutshell...
IF THE FED RAISE THE RATES - the question here is not will you?, or, will your not? The question is, how much? and for how long? - investors will have to digest the FOMC minutes to make sure they understand how much the FED is prepared to raise and what is it going to be the path of increases. in every outcome there is an idea of what would happen if the rate hike is symbolic, when I say Symbolic I mean so small that is just to show they are taking some action but not enough to make Institutional investors change their mind about the Euro.
IF THE FED HOLDS ON THE RATE HIKE - this would just take us to the same place we are at the moment, important to watch that pivot line (green) because we will continue to pass over and below this line for a long time and only the ECB decisions on the EURO QE purchasing program will decide what moves the pair (and puntualities like Greece, migrant crisis and also fundamental news)
IF THE FED DECIDES TO LOWER THE RATES - this is the less of all outcomes, chances of this is nearly zero and this is why I havent mentioned it on the chart but there still a possibility, if this happens, forget about parity, the Euro and other majors would instantly take over the dollar and we could see levels we havent seen for 2-4 years. Crazy eh? well... we know central banks can be crazy (remember SNB flash crash begining this year)
So... here we go, no only the action of increasing will move the market, but also how much is increased and for how long, watch out for inflation and unemployment as these will be the triggers.
any questions? - ask me here or on my twitter account Solidsnakeuk89
As I did back in August with the september meeting, I have decided to create a possibility of different Scenarios for the EURUSD pair for the month of December.
I have outlined 3 scenarios based on the price range seen and recheable so far this year, this would give you a good idea of where to buy, sell or hold positions if you are thinking about trading in Dec.
As ALWAYS! please be careful what you do, this is not for beginners but Im sure it would be a great time to try a few things with demo money as well.
In a nutshell...
IF THE FED RAISE THE RATES - the question here is not will you?, or, will your not? The question is, how much? and for how long? - investors will have to digest the FOMC minutes to make sure they understand how much the FED is prepared to raise and what is it going to be the path of increases. in every outcome there is an idea of what would happen if the rate hike is symbolic, when I say Symbolic I mean so small that is just to show they are taking some action but not enough to make Institutional investors change their mind about the Euro.
IF THE FED HOLDS ON THE RATE HIKE - this would just take us to the same place we are at the moment, important to watch that pivot line (green) because we will continue to pass over and below this line for a long time and only the ECB decisions on the EURO QE purchasing program will decide what moves the pair (and puntualities like Greece, migrant crisis and also fundamental news)
IF THE FED DECIDES TO LOWER THE RATES - this is the less of all outcomes, chances of this is nearly zero and this is why I havent mentioned it on the chart but there still a possibility, if this happens, forget about parity, the Euro and other majors would instantly take over the dollar and we could see levels we havent seen for 2-4 years. Crazy eh? well... we know central banks can be crazy (remember SNB flash crash begining this year)
So... here we go, no only the action of increasing will move the market, but also how much is increased and for how long, watch out for inflation and unemployment as these will be the triggers.
any questions? - ask me here or on my twitter account Solidsnakeuk89
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