I haven't traded the Euro - Dollar much this year, mainly because it doesn't have a longer term trend to it. We are still in a consolidation from the descent from 2014 to the middle of last year 2015. So far this year price hasnt broke the desember lows 1.05168 which would give more conviction on its longer term down trend continuation. 2016 Open and set a range in january which broke to the upside in the beginning in february. Price then retraced back to the Open at the end of march and in the beginning of april price made another run to the upside. This is the 2016 Bullish opening range break. Then on May 3erd price pierced through the October Highs made its way to 1.1616 before reversing and closing below the October high @1.1495. Since then we've been In a downward trend and now we just bounced off the 2016 opening range high. From our current price @1.0775 The EUR/USD is only up 0.15 Percent on the year.
If the Euro wants to stay positive for the year against the dollar its going to have to hold the brexit spike low @1.09115 this is also a 100% Fib extension from the 2016 high to May's low back up to the high in June. My longer term bearish invalidation level is set @1.1188 this is also a 50% retracement of the High to low of 6/20 brexit We also have some trend line resistance a little passed that level to get through before I get to bullish in the long term.
Note:
If the Euro wants to stay positive for the year against the dollar its going to have to hold the brexit spike low @1.09115 this is also a 100% Fib extension from the 2016 high to May's low back up to the high in June. My longer term bearish invalidation level is set @1.1188 this is also a 50% retracement of the High to low of 6/20 brexit We also have some trend line resistance a little passed that level to get through before I get to bullish in the long term.
Note:
- Still in a consolidation of the descent of 2014 - 2015 (Long term bearish trend)
- 2016 has been trading in between the highs of Oct 2015 @1.1495 and the lows of Dec 2015 @1.05168.
- Broke trend line support going back to Dec 2015 and tagged it as resistance earlier this month Jul.
- Brexit spike low @1.0911 also 100% Fib extension from high of 2016 to the low in may to the high in June.
- July been in a descending channel consolidation of the brexit.
- Price retraced 50% of the brexit day which is now my long term bearish invalidation level @1.1188
- Price is just above the 2016 open. the Euro is only 0.15% higher against the Dollar.
- Daily RSI has been bullish for 2016 (Above 60 and above 40) brexit close RSI held 40 and the 22end held 40 putting in divergence (Still bullish momentum)
- Watching daily RSI to break trend line and 50 confirming bullish momentum.
- The daily ichimoku is bearish with the KS @1.11692 just below my bearish invalidation level.
- Price close and is now trading above Tenkan - Sen.
评论:
We rallied last week right into my bearish invalidation level @1.1188 this was a strong rally and I shifted my bias to bullish but for conformation I want to see a daily close above the 50% retracement of brexit day @1.1168. If not then I will be watching for a retracement of last week's move to get long. Although I want to see price stay above 1.1100 Top side resistance, I will be watching the trend lines. Yesterday closed lower at resistance so friday's highs might hold and we would see a retracement or consolidation.