Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (07.09-11.09)

FX:EURUSD   欧元/美元
In the first part of the week, we have seen increases, which were caused by good readings from Germany and the euro zone. The strong support for the euro was also weak readings from the US. The EUR / USD made a high of 1.1333. Then, the common currency began to lose in anticipation of Thursday's Mario Draghigo conference after the ECB meeting. As expected, the ECB president did not disappoint "bears", cautioning against possible deflation in the euro zone. An additional incentive for the dollar, proved to be weaker outlook for economic growth. Mario Draghi also confirmed that the ECB is ready to do more in order to save the economic slowdown. The market took this as an opportunity to increase the scale of QE .
Finally, the single currency weakened against the dollar by 0.23%, closing took place at the level of 1.1147.

In the coming week, the economic calendar is not full of key readings, which could materially affect the direction of the currency pair discussed.

Especially worthwhile to note on Monday on industrial production in Germany, while US markets will be closed due to Labor Day. On Tuesday we will know the German trade balance and GDP for the euro area. His speech will be a member of the Fed - N. Kacherlakota. On Thursday we get on the rate of import and export prices in the US and the preliminary reading for the unemployed.

Key data this week will be announced on Friday, when we get CPI reading for Germany and Spain, and the USA will flow data on PPI and the index of consumer sentiment University of Michigan.

Forecast for Monday:
On Monday we can see the low liquidity in the market, due to the lack of data and a day off in the USA. In my opinion, the most likely scenario during Monday's session seems to be a lateral trend. Currently, the course is consolidating around the 1.1155 level, which may be reflected in the vicinity of 1,12-1,1240. Any increase will only be a correction of the recent declines, which should allow the supply side turn the game around the mentioned resistance. Then, the course should once again come back in around 1.1155 or lower.

In an alternative version we see the recent lows test or 1,1113-28 area (peaks in late July) and minimum last week at 1.1086. You can then return at around the level of 1.1155.
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