EUR/USD daily overview

FX:EURUSD   欧元/美元
The Euro was driven by upside risks on Monday. Even though the norhtern side was guarded by a strong resistance cluster formed by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly and monthly PPs , the pair managed to gather enough momentum to push through this barrier and thus move away from the bottom boundary of a four-month channel up.

The same bullish momentum is likely to prevail during the following hours, as well. It is expected that gains are capped near the 1.24 mark where the upper boundary of a short-term channel down is located. Further upward movement is unlikely, given that this area is likewise reinforced by the 200-hour SMA .

In terms of support, a possible fall should be restricted by the 55– and 100-hour moving averages cica 1.2275.

Upside momntum prevailed in the market on Tuesday, as the Euro closed the day with a 64-pip gain against the US Dollar. Along the way, the 200-hour SMA, the weekly PP and the 23.60% Fibo were breached.

On Wednesday morning, the pair was testing the upper boundary of a three-week channel down and the 1.24 mark which had provided an unbreakable resistance last week.

Technical indicators point to a period of consolidation today, as their high positioning might start to weaken in the nearest time. Some minor upside potential, however, is still apparent. Thus, gains could be capped near the weekly R1 at 1.2414, while the pair is likely to be supported by the 200-hour SMA circa 1.2345.

In the meantime, US CPI data is likely to introduce volatility in the market.

The Euro failed to move above its weekly high of 1.24 on Wednesday, as it reversed from the bottom boundary of the three-week channel down.

Later on, better-than-expected US inflation data strengthened the Dollar, thus allowing for a breakout of the 55– and 200-hour SMAs. This hourly plunge was stopped by the weekly PP and the 100-hour SMA near 1.2320. The subsequent surge of the pair was caused risk-averse investors who re-took their positions on Wall Street. The rate advanced even further up to the 1.2465 mark.

Meanwhile, the Asian session was spent calmly due to a Chinese bank holiday. The rate might edge slightly higher today, as no immediate resistance is apparent. However, the general movement should be south, as bears might want to re-gain some lost positions after the strong surge.

Contrary to expectations, the Euro managed to maintain its strong upward momentum during the previous session and climb to a three-year high of 1.2550 by Friday morning. This marks a 85 pip advance against the US Dollar in two days and 280 pip rise from the beginning of this trading week.

It is expected that the current bullish sentiment could continue early next week, as well. However, the high positioning of technical indicators suggests that some bearish correction should occur in order for the pair to build up the necessary momentum and overcome the aforementioned high.

The nearest resistance is set by the weekly R1 and the 61.8% Fibo retracement (2014 high of 1.40 and 2016 low of 1.04) near the 1.26 mark. Meanwhile, the daily low should be the 200-hour SMA at 1.2350.
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