欧元/美元做空
EURUSD Top-Down Analysis
Hello Traders,
Here is the Top-Down Analysis of EURUSD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for
Week 44 - 26 Oct
M > Price has support of downward resistance trend-line. We can see two W patterns and this provides two targets to the downside. Both targets are near 0.382 and 0.618 Fib levels on last monthly bullish impulse.
W > We saw deceleration of price for 7 weeks before a drop. Price however moved up again to be in a range it created during deceleration.
D > Deceleration found support of an upward trend-line and its break gave us bearish confirmation. However after drop price returned back to test trend-line twice. Price is currently at weekly resistance level.
As per COT EUR saw addition of few Long and more Short, reducing net positions further. EXY was weaker during the said week however it gained back its strength last week. Institutions, since last month, are reducing their portfolio of Long and increasing Short, with total 32K Long positions closed and 13.5K short positions opened.
What direction we get from this? In Long term EUR pairs will go bearish specially EURUSD whereas in short term institutions are building the market for their gains by capturing Short and exiting Long position at higher price. With Institutions currently holding about 230K Long positions they will continue to sway market in short term either way. Hence can look at Short but strictly following trend with good risk management.
4H > Price is currently testing upward trend-line as resistance and till the time price stays below trend-line we will continue to look for bearish entry. Bearish look out will get invalidated if price moves above trend-line and moves upward after testing it as support.
Pair Correlation > EURUSD has positive correlation with Gold, Silver, EURJPY and CHFJPY and negative correlation with USDCHF.
This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions.
Thank You
AP17FX
Here is the Top-Down Analysis of EURUSD (Monthly, Weekly, Daily for direction and 4H for entry) for
Week 44 - 26 Oct
M > Price has support of downward resistance trend-line. We can see two W patterns and this provides two targets to the downside. Both targets are near 0.382 and 0.618 Fib levels on last monthly bullish impulse.
W > We saw deceleration of price for 7 weeks before a drop. Price however moved up again to be in a range it created during deceleration.
D > Deceleration found support of an upward trend-line and its break gave us bearish confirmation. However after drop price returned back to test trend-line twice. Price is currently at weekly resistance level.
As per COT EUR saw addition of few Long and more Short, reducing net positions further. EXY was weaker during the said week however it gained back its strength last week. Institutions, since last month, are reducing their portfolio of Long and increasing Short, with total 32K Long positions closed and 13.5K short positions opened.
What direction we get from this? In Long term EUR pairs will go bearish specially EURUSD whereas in short term institutions are building the market for their gains by capturing Short and exiting Long position at higher price. With Institutions currently holding about 230K Long positions they will continue to sway market in short term either way. Hence can look at Short but strictly following trend with good risk management.
4H > Price is currently testing upward trend-line as resistance and till the time price stays below trend-line we will continue to look for bearish entry. Bearish look out will get invalidated if price moves above trend-line and moves upward after testing it as support.
Pair Correlation > EURUSD has positive correlation with Gold, Silver, EURJPY and CHFJPY and negative correlation with USDCHF.
This was my Idea and I hope you find it useful. If you find the analysis of help please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW for receiving all updates during the week. In the comment section share your view or ask questions.
Thank You
AP17FX
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