This is my first attempt to simultaneously trade "into" and "out of" data release. The thesis is on ISM PMI release later, which the USD expected to do badly.
My game plan is I'd like to trade with the data expectation for now despite my calculated odd that the data will be good. Meaning I'll short USD and revert my position closer right before the data release. This is more or less an experimental trade that I come up from my very limited experience trading news.
Positioning wise:
- EUR: Net Short, most heavily is EURJPY while EURGBP is Net Long
- USD: Net Long, most heavily is EURUSD while none is Net Long
Technical level to watch: 1.17 - 1.18
My game plan is I'd like to trade with the data expectation for now despite my calculated odd that the data will be good. Meaning I'll short USD and revert my position closer right before the data release. This is more or less an experimental trade that I come up from my very limited experience trading news.
Positioning wise:
- EUR: Net Short, most heavily is EURJPY while EURGBP is Net Long
- USD: Net Long, most heavily is EURUSD while none is Net Long
Technical level to watch: 1.17 - 1.18
评论:
Well it turns out my assessment was all correct. EURUSD did go up and then went down as US data was better than expected. The issue is I should have realized, as USD strengthen, the better bet to make is to short the already weakened GBP. Noted.