EURUSD Weekly update 13.02-17.02

Right now EU is very bearish. My idea is for a continuation down. But we have to be cautious how deep, because DXY also looks bearish.


Macroeconomics

The idea of hiking the US rates more than expected, currently push the dollar high. But how long will last this effect, may be CPI will change the course.


US Yields




Currently the US Yields bring more profit than Euro Yields. So the investors probably will prefer to invest in US Yields.


SMT Divergence


There is no divergence at the current low between EU and DXY, so EU should go down.


Interest rates



Currently the US IR are much higher than Euro Zone. This is bearish for EU.



Support and resistance


Price did not reach the horizontal support yet. It found resistance from the short term moving averages and went down.


DXY


DXY is still in a down trend and it may continue down. That is why we have to be cautious how deep will EU decline.


Elliot wave


If price break the channel we may see a retest of the origin of it. If not it will go up.


Momentum


The current momentum is bearish, but RSI is in a bullish range. Soon or later it price should go up.