The Euro has seen price supported at 1.07/.08 in early 2020 and subsequent rally towards 1.20 .
Price has consolidated over the last few weeks and is supported by the 20 MAV.
Technically this recent consolidation has seen a divergence of price and momentum and a decline in volume.
And price may want to retest near term support.
What is the big money doing ?
Both asset managers and leveraged funds are net long . They are bullish.
Are they at extreme sentiment ?
The leveraged funds are taking significant net long positions , but not at an extreme as yet.
The asset managers , who have been net long since 2016 ,are at an extreme long position ( over last decade) .
The is reflected in the dealers ( who take the opposite position ) being net short some 95% .
This sets up a fundamental dilemma, in who else will buy ?
Keep an eye on the COT - particularly I would watch for a change in sentiment ( fall in longs and rise in shorts ) from the smart money for a hint of coming trend correction.
Price has consolidated over the last few weeks and is supported by the 20 MAV.
Technically this recent consolidation has seen a divergence of price and momentum and a decline in volume.
And price may want to retest near term support.
What is the big money doing ?
Both asset managers and leveraged funds are net long . They are bullish.
Are they at extreme sentiment ?
The leveraged funds are taking significant net long positions , but not at an extreme as yet.
The asset managers , who have been net long since 2016 ,are at an extreme long position ( over last decade) .
The is reflected in the dealers ( who take the opposite position ) being net short some 95% .
This sets up a fundamental dilemma, in who else will buy ?
Keep an eye on the COT - particularly I would watch for a change in sentiment ( fall in longs and rise in shorts ) from the smart money for a hint of coming trend correction.