Behind us a very good week for the dollar, which strengthened against the euro by 2.47%. Eurodollar recorded decreases to levels not watched since April this year, which was the result of superb data from the US. The unemployment rate fell to 5%, which is the best result since November 2007. In contrast, a change in employment in non-agricultural sectors amounted to 271 thousand. against a forecast of 180 thousand. Analysing Friday's data can not ignore the reading of the average hourly wage, which also proved to be better than expected and amounted to 0.4%. Read this great fits in inflation expectations set by the Fed.
Robust data pave the way for the Fed, which should start a series of interest rate hikes in December. At the moment, the market discounts this possibility at 69.8%.
What lies ahead in the coming week? Calendar in the first part of the week is pretty poor macro data, key figures will be announced on Friday.
On Monday it will be worth to look at the commercial balance of Germany. On Tuesday we will know the price indices of import and export in the United States. On Wednesday, his speech will note, Mario Draghi, who will take part in an open forum organized by the Bank of England, on the future direction of financial regulation, in London.
On Thursday we will know the CPI for Germany and France and industrial production for the euro zone. Then the US will flow initially declared data on unemployment.
On Friday we will see a variety of data from Europe and the US However, the most important figure of the day will be data on retail sales and PPI in the US. Besides these readings Investors will closely watch the University of Michigan index and GDP readings for France, Germany and the Euro zone.
The outlook for EUR / USD:
The currency pair is strongly sold out, which should lead to try to correct the recent declines. Additional support for the demand is the lack of relevant data in the first part of the week. Therefore, we may see the development of local adjustment in the direction of the first significant resistance level at 1,0808-10. The next technical resistance level will be 1,0833-35.
In the longer term still applies downward trend and this means that after completing the correction, Eurodollar should direct towards lower price levels. After breaking Friday's bottom at 1.0706 the supply side will head towards support at 1.0660 and 1.0600.
Robust data pave the way for the Fed, which should start a series of interest rate hikes in December. At the moment, the market discounts this possibility at 69.8%.
What lies ahead in the coming week? Calendar in the first part of the week is pretty poor macro data, key figures will be announced on Friday.
On Monday it will be worth to look at the commercial balance of Germany. On Tuesday we will know the price indices of import and export in the United States. On Wednesday, his speech will note, Mario Draghi, who will take part in an open forum organized by the Bank of England, on the future direction of financial regulation, in London.
On Thursday we will know the CPI for Germany and France and industrial production for the euro zone. Then the US will flow initially declared data on unemployment.
On Friday we will see a variety of data from Europe and the US However, the most important figure of the day will be data on retail sales and PPI in the US. Besides these readings Investors will closely watch the University of Michigan index and GDP readings for France, Germany and the Euro zone.
The outlook for EUR / USD:
The currency pair is strongly sold out, which should lead to try to correct the recent declines. Additional support for the demand is the lack of relevant data in the first part of the week. Therefore, we may see the development of local adjustment in the direction of the first significant resistance level at 1,0808-10. The next technical resistance level will be 1,0833-35.
In the longer term still applies downward trend and this means that after completing the correction, Eurodollar should direct towards lower price levels. After breaking Friday's bottom at 1.0706 the supply side will head towards support at 1.0660 and 1.0600.