Great British Peso - A star is born

2023年12月28日

🟢I'm going long GBPCHF here at 1.07.🟢

There were times when the GREAT British Pound was more true to its name than in these stormy weeks.

GBP negative:
The pound has taken a few knocks in these weeks:

➡️- GDP was recently much weaker (-0.3) than expected (0.0)
➡️- At 0.4, industrial production also surprised negatively in relation to expectations
➡️- However, the significantly weaker labour data recently, in which bonus payments in particular surprised to the downside, is even worse and raises one question in particular:

🏛🇬🇧Will the BOE actually cut interest rates so much later than their friends at the FED and ECB?
This can certainly be doubted.

The neighbours from the European Union in particular are making a name for themselves with similarly cruel data as in the UK, but the islanders do have something over the mainland.
And that brings us to the positives.

GBP positive:✅️
➡️🟢The PMIs in the UK have recently surprised on the upside and so there is light at the end of the tunnel, in contrast to the European counterpart, which has only surprised with more and more negative PMIs

➡️🟢Although wage pressure is falling, it remains high by international standards
➡️📊🔮 There are signs of a recovery in both retail sales and GDP for 2024

Conclusion:
The outlook for the pound is beginning to brighten, even if the labour market will continue to weaken and there are likely to be some setbacks here


I have already commented in detail on the outlook for the CHF in the following trade ideas:

1月2日

注释

📊🇨🇭This week we got the Swiss CPI which could bring some volatility into the market
📊🇨🇭Inflation data out of Switzerland over the next two months:
-> It will rise slightly, as the higher electricity prices are now having an bigger effect and also rental prices, which are adjusted once a year in Switzerland, will also contribute to an increase.

1月5日

注释

📊🇬🇧 On the UK side, it will be particularly exciting to see how quickly inflation will really fall.
The 2% mark could already be reached in Q2.
🏛🇬🇧 Nevertheless, it is doubtful whether the BOE will cut interest rates at the same time as the ECB or whether it will take longer.
I think May would be a realistic scenario for a 1st rate cut by the BOE ✅️

1月10日

注释

🟢The trade is already +150 Pips in Profit and here is where the fun begins🟢
-> A quick push towards 1.10 would be welcome, there I would expect some consolidation before the final chapter of the journey starts✅️

🇨🇭📊As forecasted the Swiss CPI saw a rise towards 1.7%.
📊🔮And as I said the next month will see a rise again this time to 2% or maybe even slightly above🔮📊
-> BUT: This rise will be temporary so the SNB won't act on it.
🏛🇨🇭I see the SNB cutting rates in June 24🟢

1月11日

注释

🇬🇧THE WEEK OF THE GBP🇬🇧

📊🇬🇧There is so much UK data coming up next week that I strongly expect the pound to be THE most volatile currency in the coming week📈📉

1. Starting with the UK labor data on Tuesday📊🇬🇧
⚠️ 2. Wednesday's inflation data (CPI) will be the absolute highlight! 📊🇬🇧⚠️
3. but also the PPI data 📊🇬🇧
4. and retail sales 📊🇬🇧

Will bring so much momentum to the market that I expect some promising trading opportunities here🟢

🔮 I'll fire up my crystal ball and see if I can catch one or two pieces of insider information in my favor 🔮

Because as always, the motto is:
🟢 "The best trades are the ones that are decided BEFORE they've even started." 🟢

1月19日

注释

I think it's obvious how much fun I'm having with my darling GBPCHF as it's in profit by almost 350 pips after less than 3 weeks
-> I'm loving it! 🟢

📊🇬🇧 The inflation data (CPI) from the UK, which surprised to the upside, helped.

-> It has already broken the 1.10 mark and now nothing stands in the way of the TP at 1,115 ✅️

🇨🇭📊 (Only the Swiss CPI data at the beginning of February could act as a small spoilsport here...)

2月7日

注释

🟢My GBPCHF long took a short breather before its final leg towards the 1.1150 target🟢

🟢 Since it has given me a lot of pleasure so far, I am allowing it to breath and am waiting for further economic data to push it trough to the 1.105 (light) resistance✅️

🇨🇭📊 Next week's inflation data from Switzerland will definitely bring volatility✅️

⚠️📊🔮As predicted 2 months ago, Swiss inflation will rise towards 2% this time or possibly even slightly above 🔮📊⚠️

3月18日

注释

✅️Take Profit reached: +460 pips ✅️

🟢A very nice and simple trade🟢
-> Trades like this are the most fun and taste better than any Big Tasty!
-> I'm lovin it✅️

Here are the bare numbers:
🟢Profit: 460 Pips✅️
🟢Duration of the trade: 8 weeks ✅️
🟢Time in drawdown: 0✅️
🟢Pips in drawdown: 0✅️

🟢Check out my USDCHF Longterm trade (also in profit) for another CHF Trade!🟢

4月11日

注释

🏛🇨🇭 And the SNB was actually the first of the G8 central banks to cut interest rates back in March
-> the CHF got a good beating💥💥💥 (as expected)
-> i'm waiting for pullbacks in the GBPCHF to buy it again✅️

-> 🔮my prophecy from December last year came true🔮

! 🔮But that's not all folks🔮 !
-> 🏛🇨🇭Ich expect the SNB to cut interest rates again in June🔮
-> the CHF train will continue its downwards journey✅️