Trying GBPJPY lower here.
Overall the GBP narrative has worsened recently, there is worsening UK economic data and also worries that further hikes form the BoE will result in a uk recession. The GBP CPI dat this week is likely to surprise to the upside which i think will make things worse as it will strengthen staglfation worries. The BoE is also in a tough spot this week and i don't think there's huge room for an outcome where people buy GBP because of the meeting. The BoJ meeting will likely not be too much of a surprise given the recent speech from the head of the BoJ being dovish.
Rate differentials are pointing lower, seasonals turn bearish on stocks which should benefits GBPJPY lower as well.
positioning is extremely long on GBP which i think is a little stale now.
You can also see on the chart that the moving average are all mostly converging above price and that GBPJPY is close to an uptrend that defined it so far this year, breaking that could mean a move to the downside.
not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
Overall the GBP narrative has worsened recently, there is worsening UK economic data and also worries that further hikes form the BoE will result in a uk recession. The GBP CPI dat this week is likely to surprise to the upside which i think will make things worse as it will strengthen staglfation worries. The BoE is also in a tough spot this week and i don't think there's huge room for an outcome where people buy GBP because of the meeting. The BoJ meeting will likely not be too much of a surprise given the recent speech from the head of the BoJ being dovish.
Rate differentials are pointing lower, seasonals turn bearish on stocks which should benefits GBPJPY lower as well.
positioning is extremely long on GBP which i think is a little stale now.
You can also see on the chart that the moving average are all mostly converging above price and that GBPJPY is close to an uptrend that defined it so far this year, breaking that could mean a move to the downside.
not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!