UPDATE: WC0206 GBPJPY Outlook: Still long until DTF LL is broken
MTF Analysis
Check annotations in the anchored notes for M-W-D-H4-H1 analysis.
I've updated GJ's outlook for this week from the last one published in January -- specifically the Weekly Anchored Note
Weekly Timeframe Outlook
Sun,1/22/23 -
Bearish downtrend
UPDATE:
Mon, 2/6/23
1. WC 30 Jan weekly candle ended up being a lower high. A 120 pip rejection wick from December's low.
2. There is a weekly and monthly imbalance that is coinciding with
- December's 50% level (almost)
- January's high
- Previous week's high
- This is supported by the 200 EMA (Daily TF) as it will be tapping it / be under it.
Weekly BIAS:
1. Price is bullish until it reaches/ taps #2's confluence areas.
2. Once it taps #2 conf areas, it will melt until it reaches January's low (which is also coinciding with the last Daily TF lower low) -- price will tap this daily and monthly conf area and then it will rocket and resume the bullish trend that it has been having.
ON THE FLIP SIDE.
1. The last low of the Daily TF. 155.39 X January low -- if price pierces that level and continues all the way down then it may just melt until the next monthly key level which is around 150.75
2. It may just continue the uptrend all the way at least to the M&W trendline
FUNDAMENTAL HIGH IMPACT NEWS FOR GJ FEB AND MARCH
Date Country & Event
2023, February 07, 08:01 (United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance
2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) GDP MoM
2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Employment Change
2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change
2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate
2023, February 15, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY
2023, February 16, 07:50 (Japan) Balance of Trade
2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY
2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM
2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM
2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY
2023, February 21, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI
2023, February 21, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
2023, February 24, 08:01 (United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence
2023, March 01, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
2023, March 02, 13:00 (Japan) Consumer Confidence
2023, March 03, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI
2023, March 07, 08:01 (United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
2023, March 10, 11:00 (Japan) BoJ Interest Rate Decision
2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) GDP MoM
2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance
2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate
2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change
2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Employment Change
2023, March 16, 07:50 (Japan) Balance of Trade
2023, March 22, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY
2023, March 23, 20:00 (United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision
2023, March 24, 07:30 (Japan) Inflation Rate YoY
2023, March 24, 08:01 (United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence
2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM
2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY
2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM
2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY
2023, March 24, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
2023, March 24, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI
MTF Analysis
Check annotations in the anchored notes for M-W-D-H4-H1 analysis.
I've updated GJ's outlook for this week from the last one published in January -- specifically the Weekly Anchored Note
Weekly Timeframe Outlook
Sun,1/22/23 -
Bearish downtrend
UPDATE:
Mon, 2/6/23
1. WC 30 Jan weekly candle ended up being a lower high. A 120 pip rejection wick from December's low.
2. There is a weekly and monthly imbalance that is coinciding with
- December's 50% level (almost)
- January's high
- Previous week's high
- This is supported by the 200 EMA (Daily TF) as it will be tapping it / be under it.
Weekly BIAS:
1. Price is bullish until it reaches/ taps #2's confluence areas.
2. Once it taps #2 conf areas, it will melt until it reaches January's low (which is also coinciding with the last Daily TF lower low) -- price will tap this daily and monthly conf area and then it will rocket and resume the bullish trend that it has been having.
ON THE FLIP SIDE.
1. The last low of the Daily TF. 155.39 X January low -- if price pierces that level and continues all the way down then it may just melt until the next monthly key level which is around 150.75
2. It may just continue the uptrend all the way at least to the M&W trendline
FUNDAMENTAL HIGH IMPACT NEWS FOR GJ FEB AND MARCH
Date Country & Event
2023, February 07, 08:01 (United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance
2023, February 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) GDP MoM
2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Employment Change
2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change
2023, February 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate
2023, February 15, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY
2023, February 16, 07:50 (Japan) Balance of Trade
2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY
2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM
2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM
2023, February 17, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY
2023, February 21, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI
2023, February 21, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
2023, February 24, 08:01 (United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence
2023, March 01, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
2023, March 02, 13:00 (Japan) Consumer Confidence
2023, March 03, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI
2023, March 07, 08:01 (United Kingdom) BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
2023, March 10, 11:00 (Japan) BoJ Interest Rate Decision
2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance Non-EU
2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) GDP MoM
2023, March 10, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Goods Trade Balance
2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Unemployment Rate
2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Claimant Count Change
2023, March 14, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Employment Change
2023, March 16, 07:50 (Japan) Balance of Trade
2023, March 22, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Inflation Rate YoY
2023, March 23, 20:00 (United Kingdom) BoE Interest Rate Decision
2023, March 24, 07:30 (Japan) Inflation Rate YoY
2023, March 24, 08:01 (United Kingdom) Gfk Consumer Confidence
2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales MoM
2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales YoY
2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel MoM
2023, March 24, 15:00 (United Kingdom) Retail Sales ex Fuel YoY
2023, March 24, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI
2023, March 24, 17:30 (United Kingdom) S&P Global/CIPS UK Services PMI