This week so far has been dominated by false hope and dumb optimism. The market has eagerly exaggerated the dollar condition. "Oh let's increase taxes on behalf of the stimulus bill and lets print more money to make our economy look like its performing well". With Bidens complete and unrealistic expectation of the US economy on how it would reform, I guarantee they're going to have to increase rates, it's like a drug to the fed, they need those hikes, back peddling and trying to change the whole situation on the US economy is something the fed can't handle. Don't get me wrong I did expect a downwards move but this is exaggerated. BOE is seemed to have a dovish outlook on how things are going but there is no hardcore data to provide this in detail? furthermore, the fomc report was also dovish? So what does that really tell you logically, forget the technical side of things. The Uk consensus for data tomorrow is positive? What happens when the data is actually good or as expected? Sell Dollar? I know this downwards move was just built upon pure speculation through false hope, this discounted value for GBP is an excellent move to continue to the upside. We look at AstraZeneca and see some problems with how the UK is handling it, but I do not see the need to exaggerate prices further downwards in my honest opinion, what about the new variant in the US? Due diligence is key and for that, I am calling bs on all of it, this seems too easy for us to start reversing and trend changing. This type of move is what I like to call market stupidity. If data tomorrow is negative across the board I will put my hands up in the air and say okay it is actually bearish but for now this is too speculative to be shorting at this point.
Any comments I will not reply to, pm me if you have another perspective. constructive criticism is welcome.
Thank you all and goodluck.