I expect 2 waves up in m-term before l-term bear market unfolds.
m-term buy targets: 1.31 and 1.38.
s-term buy targets: 1.2656, 1.2928 and 1.3369
GBP long term sell opportunity will occur in future (maybe in late May).
close look at expected price action on Monday.
Idea of this m-term buy setup is based on assumption that bull market = bear market in time (or fib related).
In my view red wave 4 is correcting big bear market (wave 3 red), which started in summer 2015 and finished in october 2016. so next big bear market should started only after previous big bear market would be properly corrected in price and time.
so next big bear market is expected to occur in summer. after at least 1.32 would be reached.
inside wave C: wave 1 has a 5 wave structure, which currently is being correcting by ABC pattern. this abc now looks like a new big bear market. but price moves pretty slow to be a true big bear market. so take it on your account.
I expected this kind of corrective structure originally.
This m-term buy setup is actual till price does not breaks 1.1985 (wave 1 start )
1.2187 (was reached); 1.2116; 1.2003
look for divergence for confirmation of weakness in trend
and watch breakout to buy it.
1.2153, 1.2124, etc
conclusion. don't overtrade on 5th wave of 5th wave. (targets were calculated by wave 5 of lesser degree price action) wave 1 = wave 5
I closed only 1/6 of possition by 1.217, rest by 1.219. I could fix much better profits.
ok, looks like GU completed the structure.
watch this breakout for confirmation!
wait for correction to buy it. it should make a flag sooner or later.
major flag is not broken. it was just touched.
wait for correction of recent bull market that look for buy setups.
wave B might be a triange
(c)=2.618 of (a)
then it made an impulse and corrected that. c=0.618 of a
flags were broken
wave B triangle scenario might still be valid.
my main scenario works well.
if recent correction is over, gbpusd is likely to hit 1.2969 in short term. after that bigger correction is expected.
3rd wave inside 3rd(green) inside (3)rd was completed. - best buying opportunity.
now 5th wave inside 3rd(green) inside (3)rd is forming.
divergence is present.
a correction of greater degree is expected to unfold.
so recent impulsive drop in gbpusd might started a new 5th major wave (red).
target based on wave 1 extension are: 1.17 and 1.00
coment: sentiment indicates that there were more sellers than buyers during gbpusd uptrend (march 2017 - january 2018) most time.
it's unusual for major bull market.
but it may be explained with fact that 2017 uptrend looks like correction of 2016 bear market. 2016 drop was much faster in comperision to 2017 rise.
so market sentiment was showing sellers majority.
there was unusual correlation between sentiment and price action of gbp pairs.
61.8% long term sell target is 1.2714
100% and 161.8% are 1.17 and 1.00
one of my best long term forecasts.
GBPUSD is changing its course dramatically.
Time to pull out of short trades.
GBP is going up now.
levels to watch 1.3397, 1.3476, 1.38-1.386.
keep an eye on BoE statements.
I am watching gbpusd performance.
My idea about pullback due ro BoE rumors has very little success by now.
I was stopped out by 1.3290 last week. Than I closed manually rest of long positions by 1.3285-87.
I think brexit value should be better appropriated.
Dispite BoE rate hike expectations, brexit power should not be underestimated.
Moreover brexit may influence gbp much greater than BoE rate hike.
And any rate hike will probably fail to stop gbpusd drop. It may just slow it down.
My assumption is confirmed.
BoE rate hike rumors just slow down the fall of gbp.
I made a good short trade after BoE decision. r/r 1:2.5
gbpusd stays inside strong downtrend.
conclusion: brexit fears overweight BoE policies.
1.288 is last level, which may hold gbp. it's -1 std of 50 ma on monthly chart.
we should look for upside trade opportunities.
mid term targets if it goes straight up. (not forming more complicated patters)
1.33 (may be reached next week); 1.359 and 1,405 as an extension(low probability of hit).
in long term I still expect downward move, but I am not curtain about correction pattern. too many alternatives, and now it's too early to consider them.