Potential Key Assumption: The top bold black line retains DAX.
The market keeps taking the broad consensus on the wrong foot.
A few weeks ago, the negativity towards QE and the potential failure of DAX was predominent.
Now, many operators (including me) point to a potential rally to 13000.
We all believe eurusd will fall to 1.00.
We all believe that rates in the us will climb (although all points of the yield curve are heading lower).
What if:
1 - DAX reach a hard resistance in the 11000 for a while
2 - Yields keep crashing in the US
3 - EURUSD players change their assumptions on the transatlantic yield differential and push back eurusd higher.
Now that we all believe europe should climb further, the party could stop in the middle of the move and leave place to the correction that was expected in november and never occured probably because ECB QE was pending.
These things dont happen in one go... If markets are going to collapse, it is going to take many weeks before a top is marked with high oscillation in a band of 7%.
Also, to trigger the move down, once the market will be ready, there will be a catalyst. Something we can't know now (Bad ISM pmi in march or april, something like this)
The market keeps taking the broad consensus on the wrong foot.
A few weeks ago, the negativity towards QE and the potential failure of DAX was predominent.
Now, many operators (including me) point to a potential rally to 13000.
We all believe eurusd will fall to 1.00.
We all believe that rates in the us will climb (although all points of the yield curve are heading lower).
What if:
1 - DAX reach a hard resistance in the 11000 for a while
2 - Yields keep crashing in the US
3 - EURUSD players change their assumptions on the transatlantic yield differential and push back eurusd higher.
Now that we all believe europe should climb further, the party could stop in the middle of the move and leave place to the correction that was expected in november and never occured probably because ECB QE was pending.
These things dont happen in one go... If markets are going to collapse, it is going to take many weeks before a top is marked with high oscillation in a band of 7%.
Also, to trigger the move down, once the market will be ready, there will be a catalyst. Something we can't know now (Bad ISM pmi in march or april, something like this)
