GOLD (XAU/USD) – Super Cycle, Macro & Sub-Macro Wave Breakdown

📈 GOLD (XAU/USD) – Super Cycle, Macro & Sub-Macro Wave Breakdown (1971–2026+)
Elliott Wave | Fibonacci | Smart Money | Price Action | Long-Term Technical Outlook

🧭 Summary

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently unfolding a historic Super Cycle Wave ③, which began in 2000. The wave structure is supported by Fibonacci precision, Smart Money behavior, and Macroeconomic alignment.

We are currently in Macro Wave (v) of Super Cycle ③ — subdividing into a micro 5-wave impulse — with Wave 3 in progress and targeting ~$4,500, and the final Wave 5 expected to reach $6,000+ before a multi-year correction begins.

🔱 Super Cycle Waves (1971–2026)

Super Cycle Wave ① (1971–1980) – “The Fiat Escape”

• Gold surged from $35 to ~$850 after the end of the gold standard
  
• Strong 5-wave impulse as inflation exploded and fiat credibility dropped
  
• Wave 3 was dominant; Wave 5 ended in speculative mania
  
• This wave established gold as a hedge against inflation and monetary collapse
  

Super Cycle Wave ② (1980–2000) – “The Structural Reset”

• Multi-decade correction after the parabolic rise
  
• Price fell from ~$850 to ~$250, forming a complex A–B–C structure
  
• Long accumulation period with institutional repositioning
  
• Deep ~0.786% retracement of Wave ① — typical for Wave ②
• Set the stage for a massive base leading into Wave ③

Super Cycle Wave ③ (2000–2026+) – “The Great Expansion Phase” (In Progress)

Started from ~$250 in 2000, expected to end near $6,000+ by 2026
Divides into five Macro Waves: (i) to (v)
Currently in Macro Wave (v), subdividing into five Micro/Sub-Macro Waves

🔹 Macro Wave Breakdown (within Super Cycle ③)

Macro Wave (i): 2000–2006

• Breakout above 1980 ATHs — confirmed start of Super Cycle ③
• Early Smart Money accumulation
  
• Wave structure: clean impulse with confirmation of macro trend shift
  

Macro Wave (ii): 2006–2008

• Sharp correction to ~0.618% retracement
• Bottomed during 2008 financial crisis
• Set institutional demand zone and final BOS before liftoff
  

Macro Wave (iii): 2008–2011

• Strongest wave in the macro structure — classic Wave ③ behavior
  
• Price exploded to ~$1,900
• Momentum, volume, and sentiment peaked
  

Macro Wave (iv): 2011–2015/16

• Prolonged correction in ABCDE triangle or complex flat form
  
• Ended near 0.618 retracement
• Time-based correction — Smart Money reaccumulated
  

Macro Wave (v): 2016–2026 (In Progress)

• Final macro impulse subdividing into 5 Micro/Sub-Macro waves
• Currently in Micro Wave 3 — targeting ~$4,500
• Final Wave 5 could push price above $6,000

🔻 Sub-Macro / Micro Wave Breakdown (within Macro Wave (v))

Micro Wave 1: 2016–2020

• Strong impulse breaking above 2011 highs
  
• Structural BOS confirmed new bullish expansion
  

Micro Wave 2: 2020–2018 (In Time Overlap)

• ~0.618 retracement back to OB zone near $1,680–$1,750
• Clean liquidity sweep and reaccumulation phase
  

Micro Wave 3: 2018–2025 (Active)

• Currently unfolding — strongest leg of this impulse
  
• Fibonacci 1.618 extension projects target at ~$4,500
• BOS and volume confirm trend continuation
  

Micro Wave 4: Projected 2026

• Expected shallow correction or time-based pullback
  
• Will likely form a flat or zigzag pattern
  
• Targeting 0.236%–0.382% retracement of Wave 3

Micro Wave 5: 2027–2028

• Final push toward $6,000–$6,500
• Completion of Macro Wave (v) and Super Cycle Wave ③
• Followed by potential multi-year Wave ④ correction
  

📐 Fibonacci Highlights Across All Degrees

• Macro Wave (ii) retraced ~0.618 of (i)
  
• Macro Wave (iv) retraced ~0.50 of (iii)
  
• Micro Wave 2 retraced ~0.618 of Micro Wave 1
• Micro Wave 3 targets 1.618 extension → ~$4,500
• Macro Wave (v) targets 3.618 of (i)–(iii) → $6,045–$6,500

🧠 Smart Money Confluence

• Breaks of Structure after each key wave completion confirm direction
  
• Institutional Order Blocks respected in Wave (ii), (iv), and Micro Wave 2
  
• Engineered liquidity sweeps prior to major expansions
  
• Price compressions and OB retests act as Smart Money footprints
  

🔑 Key Levels to Watch

• $2,956–$3,120 – Institutional OB and structural support
  
• $3,977 – BoS zone; breakout above confirms Wave 3 continuation
  
• $4,500 – Projected top of Micro Wave 3
• $6,045–$6,500 – Final Super Cycle Wave ③ target range
  

🔮 What Comes After Wave ③?

• Once Super Cycle Wave ③ completes:
  
• Expect a multi-year Wave ④ correction
  
• Likely a complex flat or triangle structure
  
• Possible consolidation between $4,000–$5,000
• Could last several years before final Wave ⑤ begins
  

🧾 Final Outlook

We are in a major macro impulse, with alignment across all wave degrees:

• ✅ Super Cycle ③ still in progress
  
• ✅ Macro Wave (v) active since 2016
  
• ✅ Micro Wave 3 unfolding now toward ~$4,500
• ✅ Final Micro Wave 5 to push toward $6,000+
• ✅ All retracements and extensions respect Fibonacci precision
  
• ✅ Smart Money structure confirms trend continuation
  

This remains a historic bullish opportunity in gold, possibly concluding the most powerful wave in the modern history of the metal.

📘 DISCLAIMER: This is a structural, educational market outlook. Not financial advice. Please do your own due diligence and risk management

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