Gold (XAUUSD): Swing-Chart-Analyse Update

9月17日

We are now covering Gold (not Barrick Gold) but the commodity. Gold prices are broadly stable after the latest breakout of the consolidation range but still trading at record highs, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and prospects of a long-awaited interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. The Federal Open Market Committee is now expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points when it ends its two-day meeting on Wednesday afternoon. The CME Fedwatch tool now sees a 65% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut, with a 35% chance of a 25 point cut. A week ago, the tool showed a 70% chance for the smaller drop.

Looking at it from a technical perspective we can clearly observe the first consolidation range where after its breakout we wanted to bid the retest but couldn't get the entry right and it was going without us. By being invested in the gold mining company, Barrick Gold, we still participated in some kind of this gold rush 🚀

We have now built a smaller but very similar consolidation range and again got the breakout to the upside, which is picture-perfect. If our count is correct, we are about to finish what seems to be Wave ((v)) & 5. We anticipate these two ends to find their top between the 50-60% Fibonacci extension level, which translates to ~2600-2671$. After that, we want to see a structure shift into the bearish structure, and we are going to bid this Wave (4), but until then, we have to wait until we can anticipate this Wave (4) more surely.

Stay tuned for more 🤝