Both scenarios equally probable regarding Short-term

Gold's general commentary: Technically, Gold is strongly Bearish regarding the Hourly 4 chart as Daily chart indicates further fair Technical downside for Gold. Selling pressure also comes from all correlation assets (Bond Yields, DX) Yields bounced off from Medium-term Support and are Trading on recovery candles (# +1.39%), DX was near #96.340 Resistance level (# +0.33%), and breaking it will invalidate Double Top pattern and will apply more Selling pressure on Gold. Regardless of that, all Technical and correlating assets side constitutes clear Bearish dominance, as last week’s CPI High impact macro-economic had less or no impact on current fractal. It is important to note that this week contains High impact news aswell (Fed's rate decision), and further tapering can confirm the Technical necessity for a Lower Low's extension (#3rd and final Lower Low), If the outcome however meets or delivers Higher number than expected, it can distort fair Technical downside by aggressive upswing on Gold (fears of rising Inflation). My formula points that Fed will surely remain the rate unchanged, as they are pushed into a corner, approaching the "old" issue in historically the same manner, which does not solve the issue, just postpone it. I believe that the rate will remain unchanged minimum until #Q2, as Fed's chair will only discuss the further tapering.


Technical analysis: No strong moves so far on Gold as I expect test of #1,778.80 Support again as I am not making strategy shift so far / Last time, statistically when Gold engaged the decline - Price-action recovered #12 points (#12$ spike) and downtrend was in continuation, which resembles the current fractal. I expect the same response within #1 session. Hourly 4 chart is not an Ascending Channel anymore and should turn into a aggressive Selling sequence anytime and progressively test the Daily Support near my Target (#1,759.80). Price-action is still within my projected values and no cause for alarm. As long as Hourly 4 chart remains Bearish, Gold has more chances of breaking the #1,772.80 Support and #1,766.80 extension than the local Resistance belt (#1,792.80 - #1,795.80). I remain fully Bearish on the Short and Medium-term, as I expect #1,766.80 break within #2 sessions. As it is obvious, Daily chart’s Bullish spiked Price-action confronted Buyers head on throughout Friday’s session, as I doubt that it will last. Influenced by slow CPI numbers mostly and DX near the Resistance, Gold closed the session within Neutral Rectangle territory. Gold will remain heavily pressured on a #1-Day basis as #1,772.80 still didn’t rejected the Price-action fully. The trend is approaching the Resistance point as I am expecting the first signs of Support as Wall Street opens on today's session. It is important to understand that despite the heavy Selling pressure by rising DX and Bond Yields (Double Top rejection), Gold is only on #2 points Daily fluctuation only (# +0.06%) and could close today even Lower. Last time that I had similar case/report, Gold risen #12 points and engaged the #37 point decline. I am expecting #1,759.80 break within this week.


My position: Even though Hourly 4 charts points on Ascending Triangle formation, session so far offers no Short-term conclusions. My outlook leans more to the Selling side, however if #1,792.80 - #1,795.80 belt gets invalidated and Gold closes the market above it, I will Buy Gold towards #1,812.80 Lower High's extension. On the other hand, if #1,778.80 breaks (and correlating assets Trade in my favour) I will engage Selling order, implementing strict Risk management, with a Technical stop near #1,766.80 Support zone. If #1,778.80 breaks, #1,772.80 and #1,766.80 could alter the downtrend and reverse the Price-action, so Sellers should note those benchmarks. #1,759.80 is Medium-term Support.