goldenBear88

Triple Top rejection on Gold's H4 / Critical sessions ahead

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TVC:GOLD   黄金差价合约(美元/盎司)
Gold's general commentary: The Price-action (Xau-Usd spot prices as always on my commentary) was under Buying pressure on yesterday's E.U. session (from Bond Yields on spiral downtrend) and got higher on each Hourly 4 candle (evident Double Bottom formation previously printed) but on a slow pace which may be an indicator that the Short-term Neutral trend is almost over. However, I need to see the Hourly 4 Resistance of #1,758.80 broken (in order to price the Resistance, always move it #3$ point up from the current one and keep that as your breakout point) and close the market above it to confirm a Buying continuation regarding Short-term. As discussed yesterday, with the Daily chart Bearish, I believe Gold current uptrend is well Supported within #1,727.80 - #1,730.80. Still, I won’t take risks (further Buying) above that zone as current and next week is packed with macro-economic reports which may add the Volatility index and pause the Bullish reversal. Do not be surprised if Gold continues the consolidation as there are #3 Supports and Resistances on both sides, as the Price-action can continue the Neutral trend until major move is revealed. I will Buy Gold only if #1,758.80 breaks.


Technical analysis: Gold was Trading on evident gains after it failed to break below it’s Hourly 1 chart Support. This sequence is similar to the September #24 - #28 pattern when a Double Bottom was made before the strong rebound. It is therefore possible to re-test #1,727.80 before rebounding, but not as certain, as the DX touched its Hourly 4 Support and broke it strongly. Also Gold's strength is highly correlated with the mixed values on the Bond Yields (on a spiral downtrend throughout yesterday's session, but now on a mini recovery) and Support break on DX. Gold is still in #1,740.80 - #1,750.80 Neutral zone as #MA50 on Daily chart is still Resisting the uptrend and is untouched since February #3, which Gold would need to break firmly in order to continue the uptrend. Break of #MA50 is turning Gold from Neutral to Bullish on Short-term and from Bearish to Bullish on Medium-term.


My position:
I have engaged my Buy order on #1,753.80 break yesterday, but as Gold was idle in the continuation (Trading within #3 points for more than #2 hours near market closing), Gold priced the Top there as I closed my order on breakeven. I will Sell Gold if #1,742.80 - #1,740.80 zone breaks, calling for #1,722.80, as break of #1,742.80 break can deliver decent push and quick spike towards #1,730.80, where I will be ready to close my order with Profits and wait for a final push if #1,730.80 is broken. I will not Buy unless #MA50 breaks on Daily chart, Trading on #1,758.80.

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