🇩🇪 Hypothetically LONG Hapag-Lloyd AG @ 151.2
已更新
Shipping stocks globally have been getting roughed up a lot lately and 
HLAG is holding up better than many right now. While it's been in a general uptrend over the last 12 months, it’s the trading stats on it that sucked me in today.
This one would have generated 27 buy signals over those 12 months, and all 27 would have closed profitably. A full 67% of those trades would have closed profitably in 1 trading day and only two would have taken more than 4 trading days to close. That's an average trade length of 2.3 days. That's pretty extraordinary for an entire year of trades.
What is MOST extraordinary is the profitability of those trades. Now the stock has gained about 35% in the past year, so bear that in mind. But the AVERAGE gain on the 27 trades that took around 2.3 days to complete is 2.85%. That's 1.24% a day, or about 40x the average daily gain of the DAX 40 over the last 50 years and almost 30x the average daily return of the S&P 500 here in the US.
And lest you assume that it's the result of one big trade, the largest single gain was 12% (in 9 days) but 15 of the 27 trades gained more than 2% and 7 of them were over 4%. These are absolutely stunning results for trades this short.
So I realize I should have made this call right when the German market closed yesterday, but I originally wasn't going to do a foreign stock today. I just started poking around about 2 hours ago and this came on my radar screen and it took me a while to crunch the numbers.
So I'll pretend I took the trade at the German market's close on Monday. If you REALLY want me to be honest, I can say I'd enter in the upcoming session if the price reaches 151.2 or less, but then if it doesn't I won't get to play out this trade for all of you. So I'm going to cheat just a little and assume I got in at the close, but I think there's a good chance it touches that level in the upcoming session anyway.
Per my usual strategy, once I'm in I'll add at the close on any day it is still signaling "buy" and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
HLAG is holding up better than many right now. While it's been in a general uptrend over the last 12 months, it’s the trading stats on it that sucked me in today.This one would have generated 27 buy signals over those 12 months, and all 27 would have closed profitably. A full 67% of those trades would have closed profitably in 1 trading day and only two would have taken more than 4 trading days to close. That's an average trade length of 2.3 days. That's pretty extraordinary for an entire year of trades.
What is MOST extraordinary is the profitability of those trades. Now the stock has gained about 35% in the past year, so bear that in mind. But the AVERAGE gain on the 27 trades that took around 2.3 days to complete is 2.85%. That's 1.24% a day, or about 40x the average daily gain of the DAX 40 over the last 50 years and almost 30x the average daily return of the S&P 500 here in the US.
And lest you assume that it's the result of one big trade, the largest single gain was 12% (in 9 days) but 15 of the 27 trades gained more than 2% and 7 of them were over 4%. These are absolutely stunning results for trades this short.
So I realize I should have made this call right when the German market closed yesterday, but I originally wasn't going to do a foreign stock today. I just started poking around about 2 hours ago and this came on my radar screen and it took me a while to crunch the numbers.
So I'll pretend I took the trade at the German market's close on Monday. If you REALLY want me to be honest, I can say I'd enter in the upcoming session if the price reaches 151.2 or less, but then if it doesn't I won't get to play out this trade for all of you. So I'm going to cheat just a little and assume I got in at the close, but I think there's a good chance it touches that level in the upcoming session anyway.
Per my usual strategy, once I'm in I'll add at the close on any day it is still signaling "buy" and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
交易结束：到达目标
Well, how do you like that? You thought I was exaggerating those returns, didn't you? I'd have closed the position at 159.8 today at the end of the trading session for a 5.69% gain in one day. And I didn't even have to cheat. It went down below 151.2 during the session (though I guess that would make it technically a less than 1 day trade).
I'm not sure wunderbar is the best German word for describing the trade, but it's close. I wish they all worked out this well. Oh well, maybe someone in Germany saw the idea and made some money off of it if I couldn't. Danke for the fun, Deutschland! I don't know where my next international trade might take me but I'll pack my bag and do my best Dora the Explorer impression and see which market I pop into next. Auf wiedersehen! 🍻
注释
Trade summary for my records
Average gain per lot = +5.69%
Average holding period per lot = 1 trading day
Avg. gain per lot/day held = +5.69%
Annualized return per lot = 5.69% x 252 trading days = +1434%
Max # of lots held: 1
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并不意味着也不构成TradingView提供或认可的金融、投资、交易或其它类型的建议或背书。请在使用条款阅读更多信息。