LONG JNPR @ 38.85 -- oversold

Rolling the proceeds of my 1 day CBOE trade into JNPR hoping for the same result. The system is 27-0 on JNPR since the beginning of 2024, but it has had a few long trades in that time.

I will be using my FPC exit (see my recent ideas for details if you aren't familiar). I will add lots at the close each day it stays oversold until I'm out of the trade completely.

Trade my ideas at your own risk. They are provided here as edutainment,not as advice. Please DYOR and only invest in ideas that fit your personal situation.

交易开始

Added a second lot at 38.50 at the close. Still oversold.

Currently held lots:

38.85
38.50

注释

Added another lot at 38.25 at the close today - still oversold.

Currently held lots:

38.85
38.50
38.25

注释

Sold yesterday's lot at the close for 38.42 - a +0.44% profit in 1 trading day.

Still holding lots at:

38.85
38.5

注释

Added again. Still oversold and I still believe the HPE deal happens. If not now, once Trump gets into office. Trump isn't known to be a stickler about regulations, oversight or anti-competitive business practices unless they affect his businesses. My guess is that he will gut this section of the DOJ (among others) as soon as possible. He judges his success in office by how high the market goes, and if he thinks this deal will help that, the deal will get done, imo.

Holding lots at

38.85
38.5
36.49

注释

Added again at 35.61 at the close. Still obviously (and even more) oversold.

Holding lots purchased at:

38.85
38.5
36.49
35.61

注释

Added yet again - 35.01 just before the close. This is getting old, but it's nice to know what the end result of all this is likely to be, eventually. Even at this point, a 5% bounce gets the whole position to profitability.

Holding lots purchased at:

38.85
38.5
36.49
35.61
35.01

注释

Sold the 2 most recent lots today at the close for 35.66.

Lot 5 (most recent lot): +1.9% in 1 trading day
Lot 4: +0.1% in 2 trading days

Still holding lots:

38.85
38.5
36.49

注释

Another buy signal, another lot purchased. Bought at the close for 35.46.

Holding lots purchased at:

Lot 1 - 38.85
Lot 2 - 38.5
Lot 3 - 36.49
Lot 6 - 35.46

注释

Someone must have started a rumor or knows something about the HPE merger situation. This thing was lower than yesterday's close with 30 min left in the trading day and just shot straight up after that. I almost didn't because of that, but I sold Lot 6 at the close for 36.25, a +2.2% gain in one trading day. If I knew for certain it wasn't just a rumor or something that caused it to pop I'd have held, but I've seen too many fakeouts in my day to trust moves like this. Better to just take the 1 day return and be happy.

Still holding lots purchased at:

Lot 1 - 38.85
Lot 2 - 38.5
Lot 3 - 36.49

注释

Sold lot 3 at the close today for 36.805 3 min before the close - a 0.86% gain in 13 trading days.

Remaining lots:

Lot 1 - 38.85
Lot 2 - 38.50

注释

Not sure what the SEC rules are on CEOs talking about their unfinished mergers as being a done deal before they're made official, but HPE CEO Antonio Neri sure makes it sound like a done deal by the time they announce Q1 earnings at the beginning of February in an interview on Yahoo on Friday.

A closing price of 40 dollars/share would equate to about 1% per week from here if it closes at the end of January. That's over 4x the typical weekly return of the S&P 500. Makes it tempting for me to hold onto the shares until then instead of my usual FPC exit. I'm gonna have to think about this for a while. With any luck, the FPC on the remaining lots will be the spike when the announcement comes and then it won't matter.

注释

So I've decided to break my rules on this particular trade - but it's for a pretty unique reason. Today, my second JNPR lot is currently profitable and my rules say sell today at the close. However, I read yesterday the announcement about the date of JNPR's upcoming earnings report in early February and along with it was an unusual announcement. The JNPR CEO will not be doing a conference call, due to the pending merger with HPE.

Now even though the DOJ hasn't officially signed off on that deal, cancelling the conference call specifically because of the merger tells me the deal is effectively done. Since the deal is a 40/share all cash deal, market fluctuations become irrelevant. Another 1.50 above 38.50 is almost 4% and that seems like free money to me if I wait this out. I don't break my rules often, and we will see if I pay a price for this little "gamble", but I feel good about the risk/reward here.

So for anyone who follows this idea, that's why I won't be selling these last 2 lots when they become profitable. I feel like a Bitcoin bro - HODL to $40. Hmmm..I'll have to work on my bro speak - that last sentence needs more exclamation points, I think.

昨天

注释

My rules say sell when the lot becomes profitable and I didn't, so I deserve what happened today. That said, I find it VERY hard to believe that Trump's DOJ has even had time yet to look at anything in front of them other than Trump's "priorities". To me, that means that the report today (if true - and I am always skeptical of leaks when there is money to be made by shorts off of them) may not be relevant any more. Either that or HPE/JNPR didn't contriibute enough money to Trump's "inauguration fund". Regardless, I am now the not so proud owner of 3 lots of JNPR stock.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 38.85
Lot 2 - 38.50
Lot 8 (I think) - 36.30

2小时前

注释

Apparently they didn't give Trump enough money, if the news stories today are to be believed. Kind of a dumb move by HPE, since the going rate for Presidential access and favor was like a million bucks and I just discovered today that not only will HPE lose a deal that would have been immediately accretive to earnings, but apparently will have to pay JNPR 815 million as part of the merger agreement if the deal falls through. IBD was the source for the 815 million, if anyone is interested. 815 million is over 2 bucks a share cash for JNPR so that softens the blow a little bit for me, but I'm still busy regretting that I didn't follow my rules...

Added lot 9 (or whatever it is) today for 35.15 by the way.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 38.85
Lot 2 - 38.50
Lot 8 (I think) - 36.30
Lot 9 - 35.15

redwingcoach