From the 2016 low, we have a series of abc sequences. Assuming that the low is in place, this could lead to a big leading diagonal, currently in wave 4 which is yet to unfold. We need to go more to the downside to complete the C of 4, at the end we can have a bullish slingshot to go up. If it goes through the orange zone with an increasing speed, that would be a bad sign which could lead to a new low. The entire sequence must break the 11.20 level to confirm that the bull market has already began.
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