做多

LOTZ to Bool me

I think LOTZ has bottomed finally, I'm thinking it gets back to $5 area without too much trouble by their next ER. It's been caught in the small cap wasteland bleed tax loss harvesting that every other stock under $10 has suffered. CEO is like GOEV CEO in that he doesn't pump, so it can be frustrating.

They have been expanding quite a bit thru covid but they're being traded like a legacy company circling the drain instead of a disruptive new comer. This to due to 1. the "just keep shorting deSPAC's no matter what" crowd , also similar to what GOEV has suffered - 2. the chip shortage has caused used cars to escalate in price, which might net them some more margin per car sold, but their model is best with high volume lower margin. 3. As I said, a quiet board of directors who haven't been buying any shares at ATL, plus I think their pitch decks were overzealous - the vibe on fintwit is they all need to be taken out back and executed. 4. During Q3 they pulled back some of their rollout guidance for new hubs, but they are still growing fast - just not as fast as carvana

Their last ER was promising and showed some signs of turning around. I am actually shocked with how it has continued to not only bleed but absolutely dump since then. As I said, I think its due to tax loss harvesting + market sentiment. Even in the face of another lock down style situation, auto makers will not make the same mistakes again and cancel chip orders. The shortage of cars is at/near its peak (IMO).

If we look at the blood bath that was the market today, LOTZ actually closed up 1.6% - it seems to be its bottomed finally, been bouncing in the 2.96 - 3.15 all week long.

I think it has a good risk/reward ratio right now leading into their next ER. Im not sure if I would hold thru that ER, but Im anticipating a run up back into it to the $4-5 range. I wouldn't bet the farm on it, nor would I get any short dated calls unless that tickles your fancy. I think best play are the options LOTZW and also to sell CCs on rips and buy em back on dips - I dont think it's going take an elevator back up.

sector MCs:

LOTZ - 360M
SFT(shift tech) - 385M
CARS (cars.com) - 1.11B
VRM (vroom) - 2.13B
CVNA (carvana) - 50.3B

KMX(carmax) - 23.63B
AN(autonation) - 8.3B
LOTZ cash position is pretty good

so basically half their MC is cash right now
They are actually at risk right now of a hostile takeover.
My position for transparency:
15k shares at 3.92
9k shares at 3.86
3k warrants at .68(only just realized these were available this or last week, sold off some shares to buy warrants with)

TLDR: buy now for a short play to 4.30 - $5 area. Long term, I think it gets back to 7.5 range within a year - if this next Q confirms the rebound