LTCUSD Squat & Hold
已更新
Afternoon everyone. Bottom line – I’m very bullish on LTC and have a long-term position that I’ve been building since early 2017. But…this is called TradingView, not InvestingView, so here’s what I’m looking at.
- The halving came and went without much drama. It was priced in over a month early in keeping with historical performance. Notable is that Charlie Lee said in an interview that the price run up is just traders front-running one another, which creates a self-fulfilling prophecy of the halving pump. Keep that in mind since we have the BTC halving coming up.
- I’m not super read in on the inner working of mining, but the block reward halving reduces the monetary incentive to mine at these prices. A percent of miners will switch to something else. The difficulty algo lags in adjustment. Looks to be reflected in price.
- The blowoff top in June corrected to the .618 fib as drawn from the breakout in February. I don’t give this much weight since I have yet to read a rulebook for drawing fibs, but it’s notable that it stopped there.
- .618 fib happened to have correlated with the 200 SMA at the time. Look where price is heading now.
- 5RSI is on the bottom half = bearish
- MACD fast average looks like it wants to cross the slow to the downside = bearish
Cool points to make…now let’s add the human part.
Price was a shit show during the last LTC halving since it was so new, so not many clues there other than to point out that there was a solid floor under it when it settled down. Then it took a couple years to gain some traction, and its yuuuuge rise came in a very short period. Sort of like silver does with gold. That tells me that the big profit portion of its bull market will be very difficult to get into on the front end with indicators, so being in position with a long-term eye is the best bet.
The 200 SMA or the .618 fib level look to be reasonable spots to establish such a position if you don’t have one already. If it drops more than 1.5x ATR below either of those, maybe it’s not such a great time to be buying LTC unless you absolutely don’t need the money and there isn’t a better trade (like silver).
If you must trade this…and I must, at some point, since I’m still allergic to money, I think reclaiming the 50 SMA will be key. Notice the 2JAN candle when price broke above it and the 8FEB candle when it took off. About a 300% gain if you followed the 50 SMA with a 1x ATR stop. The 50 SMA will have to level out and maybe point upward a bit for that to happen again, so don’t hold your breath for it given the current downward slope.
Keep in mind that the lower it goes, the more committed some people will be. Then it’ll hit the bottom, and they’ll sell there. That’s how bottoms are found. Don’t be that person. Try to be the one to buy it from them. If you see a massive capitulation that makes you think LTC is a dead project, that’s when you buy for value. Submitting the order should make you a little sick to your stomach.
So, there it is. Sit and wait. Could’ve done that without reading this, but hopefully this will sway you from over-committing funds before the downside runs out and not miss the buy-in when it presents itself. Good luck.
- The halving came and went without much drama. It was priced in over a month early in keeping with historical performance. Notable is that Charlie Lee said in an interview that the price run up is just traders front-running one another, which creates a self-fulfilling prophecy of the halving pump. Keep that in mind since we have the BTC halving coming up.
- I’m not super read in on the inner working of mining, but the block reward halving reduces the monetary incentive to mine at these prices. A percent of miners will switch to something else. The difficulty algo lags in adjustment. Looks to be reflected in price.
- The blowoff top in June corrected to the .618 fib as drawn from the breakout in February. I don’t give this much weight since I have yet to read a rulebook for drawing fibs, but it’s notable that it stopped there.
- .618 fib happened to have correlated with the 200 SMA at the time. Look where price is heading now.
- 5RSI is on the bottom half = bearish
- MACD fast average looks like it wants to cross the slow to the downside = bearish
Cool points to make…now let’s add the human part.
Price was a shit show during the last LTC halving since it was so new, so not many clues there other than to point out that there was a solid floor under it when it settled down. Then it took a couple years to gain some traction, and its yuuuuge rise came in a very short period. Sort of like silver does with gold. That tells me that the big profit portion of its bull market will be very difficult to get into on the front end with indicators, so being in position with a long-term eye is the best bet.
The 200 SMA or the .618 fib level look to be reasonable spots to establish such a position if you don’t have one already. If it drops more than 1.5x ATR below either of those, maybe it’s not such a great time to be buying LTC unless you absolutely don’t need the money and there isn’t a better trade (like silver).
If you must trade this…and I must, at some point, since I’m still allergic to money, I think reclaiming the 50 SMA will be key. Notice the 2JAN candle when price broke above it and the 8FEB candle when it took off. About a 300% gain if you followed the 50 SMA with a 1x ATR stop. The 50 SMA will have to level out and maybe point upward a bit for that to happen again, so don’t hold your breath for it given the current downward slope.
Keep in mind that the lower it goes, the more committed some people will be. Then it’ll hit the bottom, and they’ll sell there. That’s how bottoms are found. Don’t be that person. Try to be the one to buy it from them. If you see a massive capitulation that makes you think LTC is a dead project, that’s when you buy for value. Submitting the order should make you a little sick to your stomach.
So, there it is. Sit and wait. Could’ve done that without reading this, but hopefully this will sway you from over-committing funds before the downside runs out and not miss the buy-in when it presents itself. Good luck.
注释
Started getting antsy with price so close to the daily 200 SMA - area of huge value. Reality check:Rejection at 50 SMA on 1h
Rejection at 50 SMA on 4h
I want to get in this trade with as much room to run as possible, but getting smacked down at the 50 isn't indicative of strong momentum just yet. Preserve capital! Wait for a close above the 50 SMA on one of these lower timeframe charts to try to catch the next wave.
注释
Correction, at the 200 SMA on the 1h. The 4h is more pertinent to swing trading the daily chart. My bad.
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