$JSEMNP - Mondi: Bears Take Charge After Triangle Dual
The last time I covered Mondi was on the 8th of September 2022 and I had a price target of 23015 as my forecast was for further downside for the fifth and final wave of an impulse move from the all time high of 43005.
On the 23rd of February 2023, Mondi released a good set of full year results for the year ended 31 December 2022 from continuing operations (ex Russia ops which are held for sale).
EBITDA of €1,848 million, up 60% (2021: €1,157 million), with EBITDA margin of 20.8% (2021: 16.6%)
Profit before tax of €1,560 million, up 119% (2021: €712 million)
Basic underlying earnings per share of 195.6 euro cents, up 78% (2021: 110.1 euro cents per share)
Cash generated from operations of €1,292 million, up 29% (2021: €1,001 million); strong balance sheet with leverage (net debt to underlying EBITDA) of 0.5 times
Return on capital employed (ROCE) of 23.7% (2021: 13.9%)
As good as these results were, the Elliott Wave structure still called for downside and a few trading session after, the bears took control.
The share had been trading sideways in wave 4 from the 25062 March 2022 low, consistent with a wave 4 triangle after a strong wave 3.
The triangle pattern is seen as the ultimate dual between bulls and bears, with neither party winning the dual for a prolonged period of time until ultimately one takes control.
The triangle pattern in MNP is the barrier triangle, in this case the upper ((a,c,e)) waves terminate at almost the same price level.
This triangle is significant as it spans almost exactly a full year and looks complete with the clear break down of the ((b,d)) trendline.
Only a break above 33894 will invalidate the triangle outlook.
The bears look to be in control and the next price target to the downside is 25062 followed by 23015.
On the 23rd of February 2023, Mondi released a good set of full year results for the year ended 31 December 2022 from continuing operations (ex Russia ops which are held for sale).
EBITDA of €1,848 million, up 60% (2021: €1,157 million), with EBITDA margin of 20.8% (2021: 16.6%)
Profit before tax of €1,560 million, up 119% (2021: €712 million)
Basic underlying earnings per share of 195.6 euro cents, up 78% (2021: 110.1 euro cents per share)
Cash generated from operations of €1,292 million, up 29% (2021: €1,001 million); strong balance sheet with leverage (net debt to underlying EBITDA) of 0.5 times
Return on capital employed (ROCE) of 23.7% (2021: 13.9%)
As good as these results were, the Elliott Wave structure still called for downside and a few trading session after, the bears took control.
The share had been trading sideways in wave 4 from the 25062 March 2022 low, consistent with a wave 4 triangle after a strong wave 3.
The triangle pattern is seen as the ultimate dual between bulls and bears, with neither party winning the dual for a prolonged period of time until ultimately one takes control.
The triangle pattern in MNP is the barrier triangle, in this case the upper ((a,c,e)) waves terminate at almost the same price level.
This triangle is significant as it spans almost exactly a full year and looks complete with the clear break down of the ((b,d)) trendline.
Only a break above 33894 will invalidate the triangle outlook.
The bears look to be in control and the next price target to the downside is 25062 followed by 23015.
