First entry failed (rare case senario)
so here is a more detailed chart with alternative entry points
where i expect reversal even tho ive been crying wolf (recession crash) im not
looking for it just yet but market doesnt wait for anyone now does it
maybe it may lead to a retracemnt for bearish continuation ill update for interested parties
so here is a more detailed chart with alternative entry points
where i expect reversal even tho ive been crying wolf (recession crash) im not
looking for it just yet but market doesnt wait for anyone now does it
maybe it may lead to a retracemnt for bearish continuation ill update for interested parties
评论:
So heres the story if price makes a bearish confluence by making an aligatior cross on the H4 then showing an overall bearish story in the delta on my footprints and dom around my snd zones for bullish contiuation then i expect the following senario to happen
评论:
for the Technical bros i decided to explain what macro cycles mean for the market
Price will a.) retrace then short further b.)impulse to a new high then tank big
An impulse continuation would be the most desirable setup
but as things stand with the uncertainity of the united states
economy its rapid recovery and progression in the past 3 quarters (Q3 23-Q1 24)
has done more harm than good as interest rates are usually implemented when
economy is booming to tame inflation, but a booming economy despite high interest rates
and rising inflation one can only think what the fed has to do
as interest rates need to be lowered for businesses to
become profitable (as longer terms of high interest rates ruin a businesses desire
to obtain loans and progress further (raise assets))
while inflation also affects the livelihoods of consumers and uncertainity in the economy
i.m.o people are more conservative with their money and seek alternative investments to protect their wealth
reducing sales for everyone i.m.o (e.g tesla and the low demand incident)
in the long run affecting these same businesses that cant loan due to high interest rates
driving their stock price down as we seek alternative investments in this recession cause these
companies wont be profitable for some time and the whales know it
this time its extra special so the buy and hold 10 years gang might also withdraw their investments
looking for bonds gold maybe crypto
So they cant raise rates affecting the stock market (which reflects their economy)
But they also need to lower inflation by raising rates which will continue to rise if they dont.
And maintaining the current rate for longer might just be comfortable for the economy to keep economic activity
progressing as we have seen in the past 4 quarters which will inevitably spur inflation
Lowering rates will also just spur inflation even faster
In conclusion
raising rates will plunge the markets but a bust is necessary in every economy
As the reset and rest in activity lowers inflation then interest for the game to begin again
Downside of a bust
more people die in times of such economic famine but I think people will be
Okay they just need to adjust their lifestyles 3% changes in goods and services aint nothing
To fuss about re adjusting they budgets as raising rates is the most viable solution
Price will a.) retrace then short further b.)impulse to a new high then tank big
An impulse continuation would be the most desirable setup
but as things stand with the uncertainity of the united states
economy its rapid recovery and progression in the past 3 quarters (Q3 23-Q1 24)
has done more harm than good as interest rates are usually implemented when
economy is booming to tame inflation, but a booming economy despite high interest rates
and rising inflation one can only think what the fed has to do
as interest rates need to be lowered for businesses to
become profitable (as longer terms of high interest rates ruin a businesses desire
to obtain loans and progress further (raise assets))
while inflation also affects the livelihoods of consumers and uncertainity in the economy
i.m.o people are more conservative with their money and seek alternative investments to protect their wealth
reducing sales for everyone i.m.o (e.g tesla and the low demand incident)
in the long run affecting these same businesses that cant loan due to high interest rates
driving their stock price down as we seek alternative investments in this recession cause these
companies wont be profitable for some time and the whales know it
this time its extra special so the buy and hold 10 years gang might also withdraw their investments
looking for bonds gold maybe crypto
So they cant raise rates affecting the stock market (which reflects their economy)
But they also need to lower inflation by raising rates which will continue to rise if they dont.
And maintaining the current rate for longer might just be comfortable for the economy to keep economic activity
progressing as we have seen in the past 4 quarters which will inevitably spur inflation
Lowering rates will also just spur inflation even faster
In conclusion
raising rates will plunge the markets but a bust is necessary in every economy
As the reset and rest in activity lowers inflation then interest for the game to begin again
Downside of a bust
more people die in times of such economic famine but I think people will be
Okay they just need to adjust their lifestyles 3% changes in goods and services aint nothing
To fuss about re adjusting they budgets as raising rates is the most viable solution
评论:
I'm taking it as just a pullback many more resistance highlighted ill look for crash later