Nasdaq 2024 Guide

已更新

Been a long time since I posted! Firing it up with my bigger-picture view of the Nasdaq.

Longer timeframe: Multi-year cup and handle - bullish into year-end

Shorter timeframe: Rising wedge - potential window of weakness around the corner (end of Feb?)

What's actionable about this chart?
- If actively trading watch for a short-term sell signal - close below the wedge/below the prior day/week low depending on your time frame
- Sell/trim into strength around 18k (top of the rising wedge)
- If there's a retest of the multi-year breakout that is a great r/r add/buy spot into year-end
- Fib extension from the 2022 low to the 2021 high measures to 20,650
- A break below 16k would put the bullish year-end thesis at risk
- This chart should have ZERO influence on individual stocks that are set up differently - follow your system

Like the post for more / comment on what you'd like to see more of.

Thanks for reading!

注释

6-7 week H&S intermediate top & 50 Day SMA confirmed today on the DAILY time-frame. Things could still change by the end of the week that could negate this, but odds are favor a deeper pull-back.

注释

Nasdaq is now close to the 10 week EMA so it may see a bounce soon. The more attractive moving average to pay close attention to is the 30 week EMA - that is a major buy zone if it gets there. Ideally before September/October which would be a perfect setup into US elections.

注释

"The market does the most obvious thing in the least obvious way"

The speed of moves is usually what surprises me most, not the getting there, but the how it gets there.

A lot of confluence at the 18,400 level:
- Nasdaq is now at the 30 week EMA indicated in the last update, which has been was a good level of support.
- At Friday's close it tagged the 618 retrace from the April low - July high
- It is not retestign the Q1 highs