Short-term Sell Setup

FX:NAS100   美国100现金CFD
Sell after corrective pull back, simply to catch wave 3 or c decline
评论: could be a double zigzag correction
评论: could not rule out a larger flat correction
评论: there is a bearish count right now, but we need to see a relatively strong decline to prove wave 3 is under way
评论: could be more complex than I thought
评论: If this is an ending diagonal, we should see price re-test sub wave (3) high (usually higher than wave (3) but should not breach the origin of blue wave 1 or a) then a sharp decline fall below the end of sub wave (4).

Since the reversal after ending diagonal usually very quick and sharp, it could be difficult to enter the trade manually, we could probably place a stop sell order just 1 point below the end of wave (4) (only if we see the wave (5) rally first).
评论: The short-term bearish target would be re-test the end of blue wave 1 or a at 7391
评论: The starting point of the blue wave 1 has been broken, we need to figure out something else
评论: maybe this is how it ends
评论: A close below 7391 (end of blue wave {iv}) would indicate diagonal is complete.
评论: 7604 should act as the short-term key resistance, break above this level would eliminate the immediate bearish potential. In other words, if the diagonal count is correct, we will be likely to see an impulsive decline to follow. To keep the impulsive assumption alive, wave 4 should not overlap with wave 1.
评论: could be another leg down to complete the initial 5 waves sequence
评论: The alter count may turn out to be a Flat
评论: double zigzag w-x-y where wave x could be zigzag or triangle
评论: Flat is less likely to happen
评论: more bearish count in blue
an expanding leading diagonal to start the blue wave {iii}?
评论: Short-term count could be:
Blue {i}-{ii} followed by pink (i)-(ii);
Grey {i}-{ii};
Grey {i}-(a)/{ii}
评论: another solid close below yesterday's low of 6534 would suggest wave iii of (iii) is likely under way
评论: double zigzag w-x-y re-test the end of blue wave iv ? or 0.618 fib level?
评论: medium term bearish count
评论: other than the very bearish 1-2-{i}-{ii}-(i)-(ii) count, it is also possible to have a 1-2 followed by diagonal {i} then we could have a recovery {ii} to construct a right shoulder of a very large head&shoulder pattern
评论: short0term bearish count

'When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable must be the truth.'

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