Situation for Tech Stocks

已更新

If I were you, I wouldn't go long or short until we leave the support/resistance zone that is quite large because of market volatility. We are not in a full bear market, but in bear mode, so a long position is riskier than a short position.

What can push prices up?
- Stock buybacks
- The story of the everlasting bull market
- Change in FED's opinion to defer next rate hike (return to dovish monetary policy)
- A consensus in the trade agreements between US and China, EU and GB
- Strong global economy due to positive consumer sentiment

What can push prices down?
- Rising interest rates and bond yields
- Escalation of the trade war (more tariffs)
- Budget spending clash in Europe
- Ongoing currency devaluation in the emerging markets
- A flattening economy

注释

Big news: U.S. President Donald Trump wants to seal a trade deal with China!

+3 for team BULL

Revised lighter guidance for Apple and slowing market sales
US productivity growth slows to a 2.2% rate in the third quarter!

+1 for team BEAR
+ 1 for team BEAR

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Treasure Note Yield > 3.2%
+2 for team BEAR
Midterm elections (the harmstrung government cannot change the current policies)
+ 1 for team Bull

==> Bull / Bear standoff for the moment

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Rising dollar
+2 for team BEAR

I don't know if this US president is member of team BEAR.

Stay short ...

注释

Warning for big sell off in china if dollar continues to surge. Surely this is going to affect the Tech stocks in general!

注释

cnbc.com/2018/11/12/stock-market-dow-futures-lower-on-thin-trading-on-veterans-day.html