read the box on the chart and see if you concur? I'd be interested to know whether people are moving more toward the bullish camp right now or not?
评论:
Looking at the weekly chart, we can map the last 5 3-year cycles. Including the super long cycle from 2012 to 2016, we can apply an average of 1113 days (159 weeks or bars). Excluding the long cycle we get and average of 1038 days (148 weeks or bars).
At 1078 days most recently, we do fall into the timing band (1038-1113 days) to complete the last 3-year cycle but we should question whether the early Feb low was indeed the end of the last 3 year cycle or not? Technically speaking, we should take out the low of the last yearly cycle on Dec 18th, 2017 of 2.535 which we came very close to doing at 2.571 two weeks ago, but at least on on the NATGASUSD chart, we came up short. If we should break below 2.50, i can see us dropping one last time as low as 1.8-1.9, but with a more likely target of 2.15, before entering a longer trend bullish movement which should break the declining resistance at 4.6-4.8 sometime in the coming year.
If we should see a weekly swing low develop off the early Feb low, we may be able to conclude that we completed the last 3 year cycle in Dec 2017 in a much shortened 23 months due to the almost 4 year extended cycle preceding it.
At 1078 days most recently, we do fall into the timing band (1038-1113 days) to complete the last 3-year cycle but we should question whether the early Feb low was indeed the end of the last 3 year cycle or not? Technically speaking, we should take out the low of the last yearly cycle on Dec 18th, 2017 of 2.535 which we came very close to doing at 2.571 two weeks ago, but at least on on the NATGASUSD chart, we came up short. If we should break below 2.50, i can see us dropping one last time as low as 1.8-1.9, but with a more likely target of 2.15, before entering a longer trend bullish movement which should break the declining resistance at 4.6-4.8 sometime in the coming year.
If we should see a weekly swing low develop off the early Feb low, we may be able to conclude that we completed the last 3 year cycle in Dec 2017 in a much shortened 23 months due to the almost 4 year extended cycle preceding it.
Be cautious long and use stops under recent low.