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NDX: Regelwidriger Ausbruch aus Rising Wedge

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Der NDX zeigt aktuell das typische Muster, dass im Jahr 2017 Anleger immer wieder in die Irre geführt hat (siehe nachfolgender Beitrag). Charttechnisch ist dieses Pattern eine klare Sache: Zitat: "Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), rising wedges are bearish ." Quelle: stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:rising_wedge_reversal . Rising wedges sind bei Tradern beliebt, da sie - in der Regel - eine hohe Zuverlässigkeit bei geringen Risiken aufzeigen.

Anleger, die an der US-Hightechbörse NASDAQ auf dieses klar definierte Reversalpattern short gewettet haben, sind dieses Jahr mehrfach vom Markt "überfahren" worden. Grund: Das für einen uptrend extrem ungewöhnlich starke upside-momentum. Die verbleibenden Wochen bis Jahresende werden zeigen, ob auch dieses mal dieser rising wegde ein Fehlsignal ist. Die saisonalen Kursverläufe und das starke upside Momentum der globalen Konjunkturdaten sprechen dafür, dass eine weitere, seltene Ausnahme von "der Regel" Anleger mit einer höheren Wahrscheinlichkeit in die Irre führt.

Aktienmärkte beschleunigen nach einem Ausbruch nach oben kurzzeitig das Momentum, da Stopploss-Orders der Shortseller getriggert werden.Dies gilt insbesondere für US Futures auf den NDX, sollte der Ausbruch nach oben eintreten. Das Hauptproblem für Trader liegt darin, dass kaum jemand bereit ist, rising wedges auf Ausbrüche nach oben zu traden. Dieser Trade wäre dann entgegen jahrzehntelanger Börsenerfahrung. Es wird daher per heute kaum Handelseinschätzungen geben, den NDX long zu traden.

Kursziel für die Weihnachtsrally: 6.650 Punkte.

注释

2017: Märkte brechen Rising Wedges nach oben auf

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NASDAQ COMP. INDEX: Momentum beschleunigt sich zum Jahresende

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VIX fällt unter 10. VIX: Anstieg der letzten Woche ebnet den Weg nach unten:

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Tech stocks boost Nasdaq to record

Technology stocks boosted the Nasdaq Composite index to a record at the open on Tuesday, while encouraging results from some retailers and Medtronic helped bolster the gains.
As the third-quarter earnings season winds down and with no major economic data scheduled for the week, trading volumes were thin and expected to get even quieter in the run-up to the Thanksgiving holiday. investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stock-futures-rise-with-eyes-focused-on-retail-earnings-893234

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SPX: S-K-S Formation nach oben aufgelöst. Auch das ist nicht gerade "regelkonform".

注释

Mehrheitliche Markterwartung:

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S&P 500 Closes at Record Levels as Tech Stocks Soar investing.com/news/stock-market-news/sp-500-closes-at-record-levels-as-tech-stocks-soar-897233

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DAX: Thanksgiving Rallye

Thankgiving Rallye DAX: Kursziel neues ATH

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Nasdaq closes at record high as Amazon jumps 1%
The tech-heavy index closed 0.1 percent higher as Amazon gained more than 1 percent. cnbc.com/2017/11/22/us-stocks-earnings-fed-minutes.html

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Chart - Aktuelle Investitionsquote US Fondsmanager

NAAIM Exposure Index

The NAAIM Exposure Index represents the average exposure to US Equity markets reported by our members. The green line shows the close of the S&P 500 Total Return Index on the survey date. The blue line depicts a two-week moving average of the NAAIM managers’ responses.
Chart via Link: naaim.org/programs/naaim-exposure-ind

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NACH ACHT STUNDEN BERATUNG!
SPD ist bereit für Gespräche
m.bild.de/politik/inland/grosse-koalition/das-haetten-wir-von-einer-neuen-groko-53961700.bildMobile.html

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SENTIMENT:

'Stealth hedging' shows investors not so complacent

Some investors warn that heightened reliance on strategies that profit from continued calm in stocks, and months of frustration over hedges that have gone to waste while the market powered on, have left the market extremely vulnerable to a shock.
Boom-time complacency should top the worry list for investors, according to participants in the recent Reuters Global Investment 2018 Outlook Summit in New York. The options market, however, suggests that investors are not as vulnerable to a sell-off in stocks as the anemic level of the VIX would suggest, analysts said.

For instance, for the S&P 500 index options, there are 2.1 puts open for each open call contract, close to the most defensive this measure has been over the last five years, according to options analytics firm Trade Alert data.

investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stealth-hedging-shows-investors-not-so-complacent-908930

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S&P 500, Nasdaq close at records, book weekly gains

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished at all-time highs Friday, with all three main benchmarks booking their first weekly gains in three weeks.
marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-shape-up-for-weekly-win-with-retailers-in-focus-for-black-friday-2017-11-24?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

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MOMENTUM für US Techs am Montag: 15% Zuwachs gegenüber 2016 durch online Handel.

Samstag, 25. November 2017
US-Rabattschlacht lief gut

Black Friday macht Einzelhandel optimistisch

In den USA ist der Black Friday der Auftakt zum Weihnachtsgeschäft - und der ist gelungen, wie erste Daten zeigen. Optimismus greift um sich, die Umsätze könnten noch höher ausfallen als 2016. n-tv.de/wirtschaft/Black-Friday-macht-Einzelhandel-optimistisch-article20151550.html

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NDX: Xmas rally - Rising Wedge nach oben aufgebrochen

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Wall Street starts year on strong note; Nasdaq ends above 7,000

U.S. stocks rose in the first session of the new year and the Nasdaq closed above 7,000 for the first time on Tuesday as investors were optimistic that 2018 will bring more gains for the market.
The Nasdaq, driven by gains in Apple (O:AAPL), Facebook (O:FB), Amazon (O:AMZN) and Alphabet (O:GOOGL), breached 6,000 in April of last year and closed above 5,000 in 2015 for the first time in 15 years. The technology index (SPLRCT) added 1.4 percent on Tuesday, following a 37-percent surge in 2017 that made it the best-performing S&P 500 sector.
The S&P 500 also hit a record high close. Besides technology, S&P consumer discretionary, healthcare, energy and materials indexes all were up more than 1 percent on the day.
Major stock indexes closed out 2017 with their best performances since 2013. Many investors say the rally could continue this year with help from the recently approved U.S. tax overhaul that is anticipated to boost profits as well as the economy.
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/wall-street-set-for-positive-start-to-2018-1051323

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NDX:

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NDX 1% unter Kursziel:

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FUNDAMENTAL DATA / MARKETS

Dow tops 25,000 on strong private hiring, global growth hopes

The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke above the 25,000 level for the first time on Thursday and other major indexes scaled new highs after strong U.S. private jobs data added to upbeat sentiment following indications of robust growth globally. The 30-member blue-chip index crossed five 1,000-point marks in 2017, driven partly by President Donald Trump's pro-growth agenda and solid corporate earnings. The momentum carried into 2018, with the benchmark S&P index closing above 2,700 for the first time on Wednesday and the Nasdaq settling above 7,000 a day earlier."Every 1,000-point increment in the Dow is becoming less of a percent move. It's just another milestone," said Michael Antonelli, managing director, institutional sales trading at Robert W. Baird in Milwaukee.

"The point that people need to take is that the macro indicators are telling investors that world economies are doing really well."

World stocks also hit records, driven by strong manufacturing and services sector data in major economies. U.S. private employers stepped up hiring in December and planned layoffs by American-based companies fell sharply, pointing to sustained labor market strength.
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/dow-eyes-25000-on-signs-of-strong-global-growth-1061336

交易结束：到达目标

Open @ 6373,4 am 21.11.2017
Closed @ 6.650,9 am 05. 01.2018
net gain 276 Punkte oder 2760 pips

Das closen der Position ist erfolgt, da das Kursziel erreicht wurde und ist keine Einschätzung zur weiteren Kursentwicklung.